There are many people to blame including People and governments that were overly excited 2 ~ 5 years ago that lead to a boom and now a crash. Investors must learn how to interpret booms to avoid crashes. I missed a fantastic buying opportunity because I was way too focused on fundaments and not consumer optimism. Lyas fundamentals are coming into focus. Depending how severe the shift is will tell how low the SP goes. I sincerely doubt it will go up. MaL was part of the problem. It is up to individual investors to figure out how much that has effected Stock price. Blaming anyone is a waste of time. What is important for investors is assessing the impact on the SP. The same is true of Covid and Water. As investors we should only be interested in cause and effect. Labelling something fair or unfair is just a waste of time. Using fundamentals, Revenue Profits and Book Value, Lynas Market cap is still way to high. Time will show how strong the shift back to fundamentals will be.
Revenue
in AR it was AU$ 740 M 2022 was 920M Q1 was 128 M X 4 = 512 M. But NdPr price has dropped and plant will be down for last 6 weeks of year. So just my Gess Q4 will be about 60~ 80 M Most people use 1~3 times yearly revenue for market cap 500M yearly revenue times 3 is 1.5M / 935M shares is a stock price of $1.6. It will not go that low my guess it has a hard floor at about $3.00
Income
When stock price was going up everyone on this board said that revenue changes went into profit. I do not think that is true but I do believe 100%, 80% will do. So we will be in the RED Will wait till SAR and CC to predict H2 results but right now I think profits will be close to zero or red for year. SP is usually 10 ~ 20 times EPS. When things go bad usually closer to 10 when things are going great closer, to 20 or higher. When Lynas reached $11.59, April 2022, the multiple was higher than 50!
Book value
Book value is all the assets in the company minus the debits. The only thing that normally changes it is Profits. There are a frw other things like selling assets or stock. When stock is sold book value goes up by money raised. Unfortunately The shares go up as well and this usually is bad for current stock holders. Ling term it may be good depending on what Money is used for. In AR book value was 2.2B normal multiple is 1 to 3 to obtain stok price. 2200M / 935M shares = $2.35 X 3 = $7.05 This is the least used and if you look a Finacial summaries by different companies it often is not on the first PG. for example here is Lynas on google.
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/LYC.AX?p=LYC.AX, mini micro computers and even Gold but sooner or latter everything comes back to stock fundamentals.
Use what I say with Caution I have been early in predicting fall for banks, DOT COM, Real estate Micro mini computers and even gold as well as other things. Eventually every one of these comes back to or below fundamentals. Actually usually below because there is a pendulum effect.
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lynas rare earths limited
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$10.44

There are many people to blame including People and governments...
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Last
$10.44 |
Change
-0.300(2.79%) |
Mkt cap ! $9.794B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$10.50 | $10.66 | $10.43 | $26.79M | 2.547M |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
21 | 2954 | $10.43 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$10.44 | 6994 | 29 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
23 | 4836 | 10.430 |
27 | 12985 | 10.420 |
19 | 11897 | 10.410 |
18 | 24973 | 10.400 |
11 | 13587 | 10.390 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
10.440 | 3120 | 10 |
10.450 | 10961 | 20 |
10.460 | 11876 | 24 |
10.470 | 10007 | 19 |
10.480 | 19195 | 16 |
Last trade - 14.43pm 31/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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LYC (ASX) Chart |