Hard to come up with a definitive value until they release their ultimate reserve and resource estimates for RAF and exploration
Think initial numbers will be very conservative as they are focused on credible commercial solutions rather than defining ultimate potential
Which is good but doesn't help valuation
Below is a example NPV scenario based on a 300 mmcfd development for 25 years (2.25 mT pa)
Eg a forward operating model valuation
Production DCFs out at about A$1.80 per mcfe so you can multiple that by whatever 2P + 2C resource you want
Concept is gas is sold at LNG plant gate for 50% of JKM LNG price.
Liquids revenue covers OPEX and gas plant tariff so gas production is essentially zero cost
Need 10-15 wells to kick off production
Can add value for exploration and lots more gas, the monster oil leg and even the 2H IPO dream
All guesswork as company disclosure is close to zero
So high potential but stock is acting like a sad investment
They need to speed up activity and improve communication as others have commented
And stop doing capital raises into every rally
Suspect limited market response until they drill the downdip appraisal (2024 well #2 ??)
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