Hi Keith Pity you can't make it but work is work. Just to be...

Hi Keith

Pity you can't make it but work is work.

Just to be clear, it's only 4 wells coming online in the FMDP, not 9.

Yes, from the cumulative production chart below it shows flowback commencing from the second project ( FFD1) ~Sept 2025, which would imply project drilling to commence in February/ March 2025. Whilst BRK have not yet guided what is next, it would make sense that the next cab off the rank would be the Bruins, as this does not have a HBP well drilled on it so there is a clock ticking for a well/ wells to be drilled before lease expiry becomes an issue.

There will be Woodford only wells drilled at Bruins so that implies most probably 5 wells.

The FMDP should be in production for ~6 months before Bruins drilling starts. Five 10,000 ft lateral wells will probably cost US$50. We don't know what the eventual BRK WI will be post pooling, but being Woodford only well ( which have generally have an inferior performance to the Sycamore), I suspect BRK may get 70-80%.

So BRK net exposure to drilling and development costs should be US$35- 40 million.






To help fund the next development, I suspect BRK will tap into the previously mentioned short term LOC of ~US$15 million.

To be honest, I cannot see a buy back of any description until possibly after the project following Bruins is flowing. You will notice the gap between the second ( FFD1) and third project ( FFD2) ( flowback to flowback) is projected at ~18 months as compared to ~ 12 months between the FMDP and Bruins. This may be because the company want's to be cautious in it's guidance as future commodity pricing is uncertain, or because the next project ( probably Jewell) will probably need 6 wells ( 2 Sycamore and 4 Woodford), which should be 6600-7500 ft laterals and spending a gross ~US$54 -60 million ( US$ $37-48 million net to BRK)... time will be needed to allow cash build and repay any LOC debt.

Looking at the height of the 2nd green spike, net production increase to BRK seems almost twice the size of the FMDP and Bruins. Once this project is flowing, then depending on pricing, the production boost combined with the previous development will see the largest boost to BRK monthly cash flow. Depending on prevailing oil/ gas pricing, this may be a time when excess cash is generated

I know this may be a bit "controversial", but in regards to an aggressive or " pip trade " buy back...... regardless of the type, a BB will not move the SP at the time of the buy back . A buy back results in an immediate unwinding of previous dilution caused by equity issuance, but also decreases the net asset value due to the fall in cash held, which tempers any immediate per share value increase. That is why a buy back of itself won't move the SP at the time of the BB...and even if the corporations act allowed the company to pay more then 1.05% of the VWAP, it would be crazy for a company to chase it's own share price up.

However, the unwinding of the dilution as a result of the BB increase per share fundamental metrics, which will / should have the effect of increasing the share price as future assets/ revenue/ profits are generated down the track, where the bigger the unwind, the better the improvement in metrics, which should positively impact with time.

Right now, BRK is in the business building phase, that is the #1 priority. They have stated they will look to buy back when/ if cashflow generation exceeds the capital requirements of the FFD, and in the last quarterly guided that is not going to be prudent to do so until after the FMDP is completed.... and as I said earlier, IMO there won't be any spare cash for a significant BB until after FFD3 is flowing with 1 DSU still needing development.

BRK will also need funds to for new , non SWISH projects whilst they are completing the FFD, and these project acquisitions will also compete with any capital that may be used for a BB..

I'm not saying BRK won't conduct a BB much earlier than I'm postulating , I'm just trying to make the point not to expect a buy back any time soon, and certainly don't expect a BB , of any size to have an immediate positive share price impact during the course of the BB.

There will be a bucket load of SWISH cash flowing after FFD3 is producing, which ( commodity prices willing) should be enough to fund FFD4, new project drilling and capital returns from mid 2027, and hopefully earlier, if the projected time line is conservative.

I will discuss buy backs, and another idea/ concept I have regarding dilution during the AGM.

Hope you can make it next year.

Cheers

Dan