"Secondly NYR is not 3 years behind. AGN has 1.5 years before it completes phase 2 due to a slow uptake having done phase 2 in Australia. NYR which starts phase 2 end next year in America will have a faster uptake that you would expect phase 2 to complete within 8-12 months. So you're only 12 months ahead".
I think thats a falsehood that a Phase 2 trial could be completed in 8-12 months in the US. It will depend on the circumstances and trial design, just because it's a more dynamic environment with a larger population in the US doesn't always translate to expeditious trials. You assume the NYR trial will hit the ground running at the end of next year, how do you know it won't take time to activate US sites etc? Also, Liz Dallimore has intimated that the trial may finish in the middle of next year so we may see a readout before the scheduled end date of the trial (possibly 3-5 months early).
AGN is clearly in front regards stroke but you may be right concerning TBI. Judging by the makeup of the board of directors for NYR, they don't engender much confidence that they have the necessary industry expertise to facilitate their development in an expeditious manner. The only question I have about AGN is this revelation concerning another trial involving Australian regional hospitals. Did AGN hem themselves in by limiting the current trial design to patients needing thrombectomy instead of a broad scoped trial to include most strokes?
Ultimately it doesn't matter, the TAMs for these markets is huge and if AGN is late to the party in one market there will still be ample potential to tap into. But its a bit specious to be claiming that NYR has more upside, surely thats not related to current share price??
AGN Price at posting:
81.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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