AGO - my valuation, page-2

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mrkiong

61 Posts.

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28/08/17

11:48

Post #: 26802711
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Originally posted by mmoore1957 ↑

So all this talk of bananas is giving me the urge to put a valuation on AGO based on my forecast displayed in my thread dated 27/8/17. The usual valuation methodologies I employ are:
1. PE Ratio - cannot be used here because profit < 0
2. EV/FCF - OK here because FCF > 0
3. NPV - OK here because FCF > 0

Valuation Methodology:
A. EV/FCF
1. The EV/FCF is calculated by dividing the EV (Enterprise Value) by FCF (Free Cash Flow)
2. EV = MC (Market Capitalisation) + Debt - Cash.
3. FCF = Operating cashflow - sustaining capital + net interest expense (adjusted for tax)
4. I used FMG as the reference company and calculated a EV/FCF of 5
5. The AGO FCF from my FY2018 = A$52m. I have added back the interest A$5m to give an adjusted FCF of A$57m
6. AGO EV = 5 x 57 = A$285m - A$30m (FY2018 Forecast Cash at 30/6/18) - A$0m (debt fully repaid in FY2018) = A$255m
7. AGO EV per share = A$255m/9164m shares = A$0.028
B. NPV
1. Discount rate = 8%
2. Used AGO's minelife and production forecasts
3. Otherwise based on assumptions in my forecast
4. NPV was applied to FCF over minelife
5. The result NPV = A$263m
6. AGO NPV per share = A$263m/9164m shares = A$0.029

So taking an average of the two valuation methodologies the current value of AGO = 2.85 cps. Compare this to the current AGO SP of 1.90 cps and the maximum SP upside is 0.95 cps which is 50%.

There it is and I'm sure this will ruffle a few feathers

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Market Cap
$176.02 M

Shares Outstanding
9.26 B

Public Float
8.37 B

Base on public float, It possible hit A$0.03.
AGO Price at posting: 1.9¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
4 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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