I've been following AGO for a while now, I read the forums but never contribute so I thought I had better have some input.
I'm a 90% technical trader, I don't care too much for fundamentals as we all know markets are far more advanced than the information you read. Like the most of you, I want this stock to go up but I try not to take a biased approach. I'm not a holder.
Below is my analysis, most of this you probably already know:
Long term
Had we met more support around the 3c level (50% retracement), I would have confidence in the price turning back up. However, we're now kicking around the 75% retracement of the previous major range. A retracement of between 50-61.8% will often turn around. On the plus side, at least volume is contracting as price declines, it'll be interesting to see what happens around the 1.7c level
Short term
As we continue to make lower troughs and lower peaks on the daily chart, I've noted each trough has a hammer preceding the up move FYI
Sentiment
When backtesting, I found weekly price retracement entry with daily price retracement exit works best. I tested the recent rally and also the November 2007 rally as the stock crawled out of the ditch as it appears to be doing now.
Moving forward, I would like to see a couple of weekly up bars and a dip to provide an entry, remember this stock isn't going to be back around 5c level within a couple of weeks, it's never done that before and I doubt it will, I think conservative entries will present themselves, just expect to miss out on the bottom 10-20% profits.
Take what you want from this. Che
AGO Price at posting:
1.9¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
