My holding is in FMG-options and GRR-shares. Lots of money in...

My holding is in FMG-options and GRR-shares. Lots of money in options. I have to watch FMG closely. In most cases the acquirer ends up loosing financially, (about 75% of cases).
If FMG wins the likely bidding and ends up paying 12¢ per AGO share then $4.20 is likely for FMG share (assuming constant IO prices).
FMG financial position is not as strong as many people imagine, the next quarterly report may have a few surprises. FMG may offer cash-scrip combination which would wreck my calculations, but AGO holders would be happy.
By the way, I don't care much which way the market is going provided I am a small step ahead.
In short 12¢ cash bid would be perfect for me and you as well so let's watch the spectacle.