AGO vs AGOO, page-6

Shumpsta,
You were one of the greatest optimists during the cap raising stating how wrong I was to suggest the only direction for this company was down. Now it seems you concede that they may go bust after all. What has changed your mind?

The current run in IO prices will come to an abrupt stop in a week to 10 days. Apparently there is some large international conference in Beijing in early September and all the steel mills for many miles around have been told to close down for the period (I don't know how long) starting a week or so before the conference. Coal power stations likewise. So in the run-up to the turn off of the mills, they have been going flat chat building up stock.
I also wouldn't be surprised if a few of them were doing some long term major maintenance during the shutdown.
The point being that they have been buying extra up to now and soon will back right off purchases of IO for the shutdown period. Meanwhile IO will continue to turn up at the ports at 3-4mt/d while the buyers are on holiday. Port inventory goes up, price goes down.
I'd expect the price to be back in the mid-high 40's by the end of this month.
That will be a cash drain on AGO despite the hedging.

The real question is what happens in mid September when those mills start buying again. It will all depend on what they have sold during the shutdown and how high port stocks go. When does Gina start with her 55mt/a?

Are any of AGO's mines near Gina's railway? that could help, but otherwise if prices stay in the $40's past September it is goodnight AGO whether you have the oppies or the heads.