Folks, what DDzx has said is 'true', but has to be taken in context. Read the reports yourselves and absorb what is being said in detail. Original Jian Resources 'estimates' were based on Soviet drill data and figures from the Kazakhstan government from the 1950's, Fortis clearly states in their announcement 24 March 2011 'these are not JORC statements, has not been verified by Fortis, should only be considered at this stage indicative, Fortis' priority is to establish JORC complant estimates'.
'Both areas geological resources were calculated and classified to the Soviet resources classification scheme that was in operation at the time'
Risk vs reward....ie investment risk....do we believe Jian knows something great about these deposits and do we trust the Soviet & Kazak data? Or are Jian being over optimistic? Time will tell, Madame C in charge is a good sign, she has the contacts to get this to cash flow stage, has already announced an MOU (memo of understanding) with CNAMPGC (read announcement 22nd May, exciting, largest distributor in China of fertiliser & agriculture products). Do you think STB and POK will have access to this market as readily as Fortis will? Thats why Madame C is the key with this
Back to resource size :
Zhilyanskoe :
Jian/Soviet estimate - 650mT approx, 10% Erocsplan - 1,200mT (average), 8.5% 'almost double size', so good result, and only at 'exploration target' stage
Ouch! Big difference here, as DDzx says. Why? Read the report - 'for the Chelkar deposit the sub soil licence area is 700 sq km with drilling concentrated on two areas totalling only 30 sq km, wide spacing of the vertical drill holes, Erocsplan does not have the confidence level to warrant a larger exploration target to be defined
So, it looks like the Soviets have drilled 30 sq km, with wide spacing, to come up with their 7000mT estimate. We don't know whats in between but it would be a positive sign if they're hitting product at grade over this large area. We don't have access to the Soviet reports. Because the spacing is so wide, and Erocsplan being a reputable and professional outfit (and with scrutiny by the ASX), they have estimated a conservative 80mT exploration target, at this stage. But, we know they have a 1,000mT JORC target, which will take time to drill & document. So, a big difference here. Further, the report (again please read) in the next three paragraphs clarifies 1) Chelkar - better estimate of potash mineralisation will be defined over time, 2) exploration targets of sufficient size to justify funds to establish JORC compliant reserves, 3) Ercosplan converting exploration targets to JORC resources
And note, an 'exploration target' is not the end result, its just the beginning, the end result being a JORC resource will be/should be much larger
What the share price does when it relists is anyone's guess, but if management are doing their job and are across this one the way we think they are, this could be a real gem medium to long term. Ercosplan need time to JORC this up. Forget about short term gains in this environment it's not going to happen. I trust this clarifies things and adds some balance
H
FMJ Price at posting:
$1.00 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
