WHILE South Australia is immersed in the excitement of a mineral boom, State Government figures predict the agriculture, food and wine sector will grow at double the mining sector's rate by 2015. A series of Government plans for the key rural industries, combined with the recovery from drought, show the rural industries expect to grow by at least $4.3 billion by 2015.
At the same time, the mining sector is expected to expand by about $2 billion.
The key agriculture, food and wine industries will be boosted in their ambitious targets by a strong recovery from drought in 2007-08.
The biggest winner is expected to be SA grain crop which is tipped to reach a record $2 billion in exports.
Australian Bureau of Agricultural and Resource Economics projections of a seven-million-tonne state grain crop combined with high prices are behind the $2 billion forecast for the new financial year.
The rural recovery is expected to help SA achieve Budget projections of a 4 per cent rise in gross state product next financial year.
The Government plans for the grain, beef, sheep, dairy, pork and poultry industries predict substantial growth around the state.
The benefits are predicted to include many thousands of extra jobs and greatly increased exports.
SA Farmers Federation president Wayne Cornish said the state Budget papers showed the importance of the rural sector with their projection of 4 per cent economic growth in 2007-08 because of the recovery from drought.
"I think that is a fair judgment on ' wine primed to steal mining boom's thunder
Provided we get continuing rain the influence of the rural sector on the overall economy," Mr Cornish said.
"Probably the linchpin in having a really successful year will be seeing the season go right through to the end. We are also helped by commodity prices, particularly on the grain and livestock side this year."
Mr Cornish said while it was hard to determine the outlook 5-10 years out, recent predictions about the future and higher commodity prices were fairly optimistic.
While the wool industry had been particularly badly hurt by a long downturn, returns had become far more positive and confidence was growing. "I think the drought has made urban people much more aware of the farming sector," he said.
"The State Government has also applied itself much more vigorously to regional communities which is perhaps a signpost that it is more aware of them."
Primary Industries and Resources SA agriculture and wine executive director Don Plowman said he was confident the SA food, agriculture and wine sector would grow strongly.
He said he could see no reason why the food sector would not achieve 8 per cent growth, provided there was a return to good seasons.
The state's focus on food, agriculture and wine should be maintained as it still represented 40 to 50 per cent of export income, he said, adding: "If we can achieve higher growth from mining and tourism that is excellent, but agriculture, food and wine will remain a very strong component and the major contributor to wealth."
Mr Plowman said the three industries had a target of contributing an extra $2.5 billion to the state export total by 2013. This would increase the value from about $5 billion in 2005-06 to $7.5 billion in 2015.
Grain industry analyst Malcolm Bartholomaeus, of Callum Downs Commodity News, said this year's grain crop should provide a big boost to the state economy.
"Exports of rural commodities, including grain, will rebound very strongly and generate a lot of money in the new financial year," he said.
"That will all flow very strongly back into the SA economy, provided we get continuing rain."
Mr Bartholomaeus said other rural commodity prices, including meat and wool, were also very strong but he warned that SA needed more rain and was looking for a normal winter rainfall pattern.
ABARE's Australian Crop Report for June forecasts that the area sown to winter crops in Australia would increase by about 10 per cent to more than 20 million hectares this year.
