Headbanger,
My take is as follows:
They are planning to start mining in 2010 with 1.5Mlbs pa with 25% going to AGS...
currently AGS has 272M shares on issue or at least 300M in 2010..
does AGS have CAPEX or is it free carried?
If uranium is $100lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 1.5Mlb x $75 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 6 cents EPS or 60 cents share price value on PE ratio of 10
if they ever get to 4.5M lb pa by 2012, if uranium is $100lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 4.5Mlb x $75 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 18 cents EPS or $1.80 share price value on PE ratio of 10
That is why this share is a dud, unless they uranium price can reach $1.50lb.
If uranium is $150lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 1.5Mlb x $125 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 10 cents EPS or $1 share price value on PE ratio of 10
if they ever get to 4.5M lb pa by 2012, if uranium is $150lb and costs are $25lb, the NPAT to AGS would be 4.5Mlb x $125 x 25% share x 0.65 tax divided 300M shares = 30 cents EPS or $3.00 share price value on PE ratio of 10.
Still a dud at $1.50 lb.
CUY is better value.
Check my numbers on the CUY thread.
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