All quiet on the AGR forum, as expected with the price below SPP...

All quiet on the AGR forum, as expected with the price below SPP levels.

There are a couple of interesting statistics from the Taylor Collison presentation for Transit Holdings released today.

1. Brazil consumes 16 percent of the world's potash.
2. Brazil is the Second Highest consumer of potash in the world, behind China with 21 percent.

From previous AGR presentations, Brazil Imports 80 percent of it's potash, and 50 percent of it's phosphate.

This is because Brazil currently has only 1 producing potash mine, by Vale, in close proximity to AGR's potash acquisition.

Some of AGR's potash mine managers and technical staff have worked for Vale potash.

3. Potash prices operate on both a spot and contract basis. They have fluctuated from US$150 tonne in 2006 to a peak of US$850 tonne for a short period in April 2008. They were at US$300 tonne in June 2010 and have been steadily rising again since then. CFR Brazil recently increased it's price by US$50 a tonne to US$520 a tonne, while Potash Corp is now charging $560 tonne.

Note, for all the Elemental ELM investors, there is an error on the "Comparison of Peers" table in the Taylor Collison presentation on Transit Holdings.

The share price for ELM is shown as $3.96 whereas today on the ASX it opened at $2.10 (though I expect it may be at $3.96 in the not too distant future).

AGR probably needs to get the formal acquisition of Atlantico Potash out of the way, and then start drilling and reporting, before any significant rise in the share price will occur.

The stock has limited liquidity, with about 60 million securites quoted as at 29 April 2011, and it appears to be more tightly held than most. Interestingly, Transit Holdings currently has 45 million quoted securities.

I have requested from AGR, a top 20 holder list, and will post with AGR's permission.

Good luck to all potash and phosphate investors.

Gw