Time for a new thread, and a new analysis with a lot of information suddenly being available.
The date is currently 4 February 2021. The Investor presentation outlines the following "endeavoured" events:
- Construction of the stage 2 plant has commenced, Targetted operation date - 1 July 2022. This plant will generate about $33.8m of revenue per year.
- Approval for stage 3 (10,000t p.a) - 30 September 2021
- Tonopah Exploration - April / June 2021
Prerequisites for Stage 3 funding (word "prerequisite" is my interpreation, in my opinion this is why we are doing these activites)
- Updated Jorc at Rincon: July-September 2021, targetted total range 507,000 - 724,000 tonnes.
- Completion of Feasibility Study for Rincon: October-December 2021
- Targetted funding solution for Stage 3 - January 2022
Now it's time to whip out the valuation analyis i did last year, but with this recently acquired information
My assumptions for lithium pricing are:
$13,000 USD for 2022; and
$15,000 USD for 2024.
Assumptions for Expenses:
Costs from JORC @ 10,000 tonnes ~ $4,650 per tonne
Assumption - @ 2,000 tonnes ~ $5,000 per tonne
Assumed PE Ratio - 15
The ASX bounces between PE valuation of PE10 to PE20. The average is 15.
Market Cap - Stocks in Float.
1.25b after the raise
If we can get a funding solution for Stage 3 around January 2022 as the timeline suggests, i would imagine by July 2024 it would be more than up and running (generous 2.5 year timeframe)
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 1 Stage 2 Plant - July 2022 Stage 3 Plant - July 2024 2 Output Tonnes p.a 2,000 10,000 3 Gross Revenue $26,000,000 $150,000,000 4 Less (operating costs) ($10,000,000) ($46,450,000) 5 Profit $16,000,000 $103,550,000 6 (10% to puma) (1,600,000) ($10,355,000) 7 (less tax 25% in ARG) (3,600,000) ($23,298,750) 8 After Tax Profit in USD $10,800,000 $69,896,250 9 After Tax Profit in AUD (x1.31) $14,148,000 $91,564,087 10 PE Ratio 15 212,220,000 1,373,461,305 - 200m AUD needed to fund the S3 plant 11 divided by 1.25b shares divided by 1.25b shares 12 13 PE Ratio 15 16.97c $1.10 14 Present Value (minus 2% inflation and 5% cost of capital) = 7% p.a $1.10 Future value / (1 +0.07 rate) ^3.5 years
= 86.80c Present Value15 + 20% bonus from Tonopah Prospects and future value. $1.04 Present Value w/ Tonopah Assumptions
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