hey Millgates, no problems at all! I actually welcome your statement. It gives me a reason to jump in and provide some extra info.
When AGY posters put up present valuations and forecast and etc there’s always a condition to that. That could be the price IF we get to 12,000 tonne production, IF we expand to 22,000 some time in the future; IF something random doesn’t go wrong, IF we get a JORC resource upgrade.
The net present value should more be like $1/$2 per share times the (%) probability that we may have a 12,000 tonne or 22,000 tonne operation in the future.
I was chatting to a bloke at the gym about investments and found out he loves mining stocks and is invested in pilbara (PLS) and a few others. When I told him I was invested in AGY he said “what?! Isn’t their operation invalid because of too many impurities in their resource? It’s never gonna happen.”
this was a dirty rumour tracing back past 2017 that was proven wrong that a lot of people still haven’t moved past. Perhaps it’s why Sayona is the most discussed lithium stock now and enjoying a hyped valuation when we once used to be.
the truth is it’s all about research. The market perhaps still doesn’t believe in AGY and hence is valued at 10-20% of the valuation it should be because the market isn’t convinced yet, or — is inpatient, the discounted cash flow rate could be huge on our future cash flows because perhaps the market wants in in companies who are already producing (opportunity cost of investing in AGY).
the good thing about the market not having as much faith as we do at this stage is it provides buying opportunities for those of us who are more informed and can capitalise on that information. E.G. I think there’s a 90%+ chance we will have the 12,000 tonne operation going within 6 months of the due date, where as others may think 30% chance. If I think there’s a more probable chance than the market thinks then I’ll invest and profit off that and the market has given the opportunity.
that’s how it works. Do your net present valuations, figure out the % it will happen and invest accordingly based on what the current MC is.
cheers
AGY Price at posting:
17.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
