AGY Fundamentals 2021, page-2

I also have another interesting perspective for you (which is my own assumptional analysis, not jerkos words or from anything he told me) but I suspect the raising was institutional investors only because:

- with institutional investors, especially when attaching options they are less likely to sell the shares straight away for profit. So there is less trading share float around.

- Jerko attached options on a 1 for 2 basis. So there will be:
-115,000 options exercisable at 25c expiring around 1 July 2022; and
-40,000,000 options from before, exercisable at 20c expiring March 2022.

the thing with options, especially in the hands of institutional investors — is they always make sure their options are worth something when the exercise price hits. I.e there is pretty much a guarantee that the share price will be more than 25c around July 2022 because they will make it so!

Now here’s the thing...
The investor timeline says Jerko is aiming have funding sorted for the stage 3 plant by around 1 January 2022.

By giving away those options, there is a great fall-back that we can guarantee ourselves that we can raise the whole 200m cost of the plant for less than 800m shares around the date of July 2022 if we absolutely have to. As I said before this wouldn’t be a bad thing as that cash goes straight to assets so the share price won’t drop.

Who knows what’s going to happen, I would like to think the share price will be at least 50c by then. Which would only mean 400m shares to get the stage 3 plant. But as I said it’s a fallback which is what these options provide.

Now, for some further analysis... you guys are probably tired of hearing all these scenarios of dilution but... once the stage 3 plant is up and running around 2024 that’s where the fun begins. It will produce an after tax profit of around $91.5m per year which can be used to upscale tonopah entirely without any capital raisings or dilution.

So basically the first project takes a bit of dilution to get going but the 2nd project can be funded by the first project and it all exponentially explodes in value from there.

p.s expiring options in January was also a large reason why GameStop got so much attention in the first place... the power of options.