You crazy cats wanna see some nice calculations by Jezza today?...

You crazy cats wanna see some nice calculations by Jezza today?

Here we go.

Here are some of our peer lithium chemical producers (in AUD for FY20-21)

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0	Company	Value	Revenue	Profit	Rev / value	Profit / value
1	SQM	23b​	2.56b​	230m​	8.98​	100​
2	Alb	43.88b​	4.41b​	527m​	9.95​	83.26​
3	Ore	6.03b​	119.33m​	-83.95m​	50.53​	-71.82​

The spot price for lithium carbonate just hit 200,500 yuan, which is $44,200 AUD per tonne.

Jerko has strongly expressed we will be accepting no less than what the market is offering making me think we will be getting pricing more towards the spot price, so it is not unreasonable to use in calculations.

I will now add in a line for AGY at 2,000 tonne capacity (AGY 2000), and AGY at 12,000 tonne capacity (12,000)

I will work out revenue based on [tonnes x $44,200]
and profit on [tonnes x 44,200]  x.97 (royalties) - [tonnes x (4,200 (cost per tonne) + 3,000 (contingency)] x.75 (tax) x.9 (puma)

To be fair (not necessarily rational) i will give similar revenue / value ratios and profit / value ratios as outlined in the above table, for AGY.

	Column 1	Column 2	Column 3	Column 4	Column 5	Column 6
0	Company	Value	Revenue	Profit	Rev / cap	Profit / cap
1	SQM	23b​	2.56b​	230m​	8.98​	100​
2	Alb	43.88b​	4.41b​	527m​	9.95​	83.26​
3	Ore	6.03b​	119.33m​	-83.95m​	50.53​	-71.82​
4	AGY (2000)	884m​	88.4m​		10
5	AGY (2000)	4b​		48.16m		85
6	AGY (12000)	5.3b​	530.4m​		10
7	AGY (12000)	24b​		288.95m		85

I don't think the profit - value calculations seem likely but i think the revenue based value predictions actually seem quite bang on!

5.3b valuation at 12,000 tonne operation seems plausible. (roughly $3-4 per share)

in a crazy market sometimes its best to see at what ratio companies are actually being valued, rather than what the text book says. Hence the comparison to other companies actual values.

Cheers, lets hope it happens!