While I can somewhat agree with the premise of your post, you're erring a bit on the optimistic side (nothing wrong with that BTW). Have you considered what happens if neither the permits or nameplate occur by the end of the year?
The permits have already taken years, and we know they're held up for "hydrogeological queries" or in layman's terms, water issues. Argentina is in the midst of an unprecedented drought and tensions remain high regarding water use. National elections are also a few months away, and while the Salta Governor is already locked in for another four years, who knows what influence is being exerted from the federal level. Importantly, we don't know what kind of pressure a new government elected in October may exert with regard to environmental issues and/or lithium production.
As far as nameplate production goes, is it really a sure thing this year? Commissioning is not going to plan (remember the target was ~4 months). I'm not saying there are insurmountable issues, but we were expecting to achieve nameplate last year, and we're still not there. What assurance is there that AGY will get there by the end of this year?
While I still think a CR is pretty unlikely, it's certainly possible that AGY could have to take this action if it doesn't start generating revenue within the next 6-9 months. With the Chinese economy faltering, there's no guarantee that the spot price substantially recovers within that timeframe. There's every chance that it could remain around these levels. Likewise, without the permits, nameplate production, strategic investment or an offtake, it's also possible that the AGY share price continues to sit around current levels. In that context, would a CR around the 30c level be a good thing? Doubt it.
As far as "irrational negativity" goes, investors have every reason to be negative, so it's actually completely rational. In fact, you could make the argument that many here remain irrationally positive in the face of resource expansion delays, commissioning issues, plummeting spot prices, looming Chinese recession, permitting issues, no offtakes and no strategic investment.
And remember, selling is only bonkers if you have no intention of getting back in. Many long-termers talk about selling like you only have one entry and one exit per stock. Even on great news, AGY will probably move up 15-25% in a day. That means that those who sold can get probably get back in around the mid-30s. That's hardly bonkers, it's a prudent way to preserve capital until some de-risking occurs.
AGY Price at posting:
29.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)