AGY Summary of Journey and Fundamentals

I thought I would start a new thread and not clog up existing regular threads like the charting one.

I feel the frustrations of those who bought high and are sitting on steep losses... as I'm in the same boat.

I was doing some research from when I first started looking at AGY and what has changed since then.

- First started looking at AGY shortly after the announcement of the lithium triangle interests (Market Cap of 12.8M - $14M with 428M shares on the market)
- When I first bought it was after they announced they were interested in Mina Teresa and Pocitos at an entry price of 3.5c, they were going to carry out due diligence and did a cap raising at 3c on 24 May 2016 for $800k (Market Cap of $16M with 455M shares on the market)
- After executing the option (8 June 2016) to purchase Mina Teresa and Pocitos after successful due diligence, AGY ran up to 4.6c/share (Market Cap of $21M with 455M shares on the market)
- The company then advised in July they had entered into an agreement for the Rincon project which they would now carry out DD.
- Due diligence on the Rincon project was successful.
- Alexander Molyneux became Non-Executive Chairman for AGY on 15 August 2016
- In the mean time whilst DD was progressing for Rincon they were pushing for permits for Pocitos and Mina Teresa.
- What was highlighted a few times on the AGY threads and the matter that I often overlooked is the convertible notes and the impact this would have overall.
- AGY currently has 645.75M shares on issue (vs 455M shares) and a market cap of $14.8M. If looked at with my first point where the company has a market cap of $12.8M - $14M then the market cap is up ever so slightly.
- Whilst the company has advanced along, the only way the SP will increase substantially from here on in is through the company hitting significant milestones such as positive drilling/exploration results at Pocitos and positive results from the lab scale testwork at Rincon.
- A lot of juniors trade between $10M-$20M market caps when the company has exciting "prospects". When results are found and depending on the size of resources found upon successful exploration these companies can trade at far higher valuations.

What I would like to stress to many posters is that the company has not really shown any "proven" results to the market for any of the existing projects and the equity on issue has increased by over 200M shares during the last few months. This has resulted in the SP falling whilst the Market cap has remained in a very similar band between $14M-$21M. Announcing exploration is commencing or any such news will not move the SP.

However, when AGY has completed exploration at Pocitos and can show some good results of lithium values in the brines... this will re-rate.

We know based on the many posts on these threads that the fundamentals are great.
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/17768248/single

It might take a while longer for the results to be determined and released, however in all likelihood AGY has likely got a good set of resources on its hands.

One final point I would like to remind holders is the tightly held nature of this stock:
http://hotcopper.com.au/posts/17766146/single

Thanks go to @georgecostanza and @Megagene79.

If anyone has an updated table as DAF sold a large portion of its shares, and 200M shares went to management and other long term holders. Thus the free shares on market have remained slim. This is why during lull periods the SP can track down but on very low volume.

Ultimately if the convertible notes were not in the picture the SP would have continued around 3-3.3c. I don't agree with any claims that the market cap should be any higher... not until there are substantial results of exploration and test-work.

I hope this helps any new punters looking to enter AGY. All I can say is that at this price there is good value in holding this stock given the fundamentals.

- 3 very prospective lithium projects (Mina Teresa, Pocitos and Rincon).
- 2 highly respected lithium experts (Dr Carlos Sorrentino and Mr Pablo Alurralde)
- 1 well connected non-exec Chairman (Mr Alexander Molyneux)
- Decent management team with a Geologist, Mr Jerko Zuvela, Chartered Accountant, Mr Ranko Matic, and company secretary Ms Andrea Betti.
- Low cash drain and likely low expenditure required on exploration in Argentina, with drilling being shallow due to testing for brine and not hard rock.

Good luck to all who join the AGY story. I will continue to hold unless these solid fundamentals change. The likelihood is that the results will prove that this stock is undervalued.