There are far more uncertainties with your far more complicated investment (VUL) and yet you are happy to start throwing stones in the glasshouse. Feel free to take the following quiz
You're holding stock at 4X the market cap of AGY, which has not only produced zero lithium but is only at the PFS stage and even the PFS doesn't know the flow rates with any good level of certainty due to a complete lack of drilling. I don't recall any other company with such a valuation that hasn't had an extensive drilling program to bring certainty to its feasibility study.
Revision question: Who has drilled a hole in the ground?
(A) VUL
(B) AGY
Additionally, It's one of the most capital-intensive projects amongst the non-producers.
Revision question: Who has a funded first stage and likely near-term funding for its expansion?
(A) VUL
(B) AGY
It's many years away from any production. Assuming all goes well when it finally does come into production, the lithium shortage will be over, and more moderated longer-term prices will again be the norm, decimating the overinflated markets caps.
Revision question: Who will likely be in production at peak carbonate/hydroxide prices?
(A) VUL
(B) AGY
Even the zero-emissions claim is false.
'Emission of greenhouse gases into the environment has become an increasing concern. Deregulation of the electrical market will allow consumers to select power suppliers that utilize green power. Geothermal power is classed as green power and has lower emissions of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour of electricity than even the cleanest of fossil fuels, natural gas. However, previously published estimates of carbon dioxide emissions are relatively old and need revision. This study estimates that the average carbon dioxide emissions from geothermal and fossil fuel power plants are:
geothermal 0.18 , coal 2.13, petroleum 1.56 , and natural gas 1.03 pounds of carbon dioxide per kilowatt-hour respectively.'
Geothermal Electrical Production CO2 Emissions Study (Conference) | OSTI.GOV
Revision question: Which brine operation has access to a nearby solar plant for true zero-emission?
(A) VUL
(B) AGY
Finally, you are now at the receiving end of a shorting campaign. Ever think about why they choose VUL? Could it be that there is a huge amount of uncertainty in the project fundamentals for such an elevated market capitalization?
Revision question: Which company is seen by shorters to have less secure fundamentals to warrant a shorting campaign?
(A) VUL
(B) AGY
