Flimsy statements are easy to make. Cursory research and poorly presented information is no way to determine investment decisions.... the devil is always in the details. For those looking for some quick hard and substantiated facts, I've put together this brief overview.
AGY Key Points:
PEA Nov 2018Financial Analysis Base Case Scenario:
- Capex US$140.9M,
- 10,000t/pa at
US$13,000/t*,
- 16.5yr LOM,
- JORC Indicated Resource 245,120t to 100m depth (open at depth)^
- Total Estimated Operating Costs = US$4,645/t,
- Pre-tax NPV $US$399M,
- IRR 53%,
- EBITDA margin 61%,
- Annual Cashflow for LOM ~US$74M
These figures continue to be referenced as recently as the October 2021 Investor Presentation (inc ~US$20m for 2,000tpa operation - which is fully funded)
NOTES:* Current Li2Co3 price is over
US$30,000/t^ Drilling program currently in progress for drilling to 300m with potential of up to 507,000 to 724,000 tonnes - currently awaiting regulatory approvals rot commence drilling.
Additional key points:
- Current 2,000tpa plant is fully funded
- Industrial scale pilot plant has produced +30t of battery quality Lithium carbonate at >99.5% Li2CO3 purity (ie, proven process and quality as opposed to laboratory scale product and processes)
- Product has been independently tested by prospective end users, with two cargos delivered to customers in Japan and South Korea
- Proven process and product quality, significantly de-risks both the project and end-user confidence
- Strategic investment for off-take and 10,000tpa capex funding are a key objective of the current quarter.
Key ANN reference sources for above info:
28/11/2018 Argosy delivers PEA results
11/10/2021 USA Investor Meetings
28/10/2021 Quarterly Activities Report
In addition to the above publicly available (and legally accountable) info, I'd just add that whilst the journey has seemed slow and plodding at times, the AGY team have been up front about the way they were going to develop and prove the project - and that then they have delivered on that plan.
The journey thus far has largely played out the way they projected it, ie prove the resource potential, prove the product process and quality, self fund the project to 2,000tpa whilst the lithium market/price was in the doldrums, and then be ready to start production in-line with an anticipated upturn in the lithium price.
IMO, things are just about to get interesting!
NB: I haven't read everyone's comment in this thread, so apologies if I've repeated info already shared.
