AHF (ASX) ahf propaganda and why its not worth 40 cents.

Originally posted by seuss: ↑
Let’s bury this 40-cent price fantasy 6 ft. deep once and for all.

Now we are hearing 60c today.. maybe needs to be deeper than 6 ft perhaps.

With current assets and operational experience, it is just not possible. Bringing in an additional canning partner raises more questions as I will discuss below, I highly doubt they will make any profit in 2025 at all.

Is this the future of market research?

is using AI helping anyone? I would suggest, No it is not Helping AHF and its reputation by publishing such rubbish. Doing more harm than good to the company, other shareholders and the author of such a fictional tale. Ahf don’t need any help in over promising, promoting and under delivering. They are doing a fine job on their own without help.

Take a good look at this, download it and save it before its deleted in embarrassment
There is a full transcript of the article .

https://audio.com/jimbopmc/audio/ahf-dominating-china-s-infant-formula-market

AHF Dominating China's Infant Formula Market | Podcast by jimbopmc | Listen on audio.com

I urge you all to read all of jimbos publics articles on twitter he produced in few days early January after a big new year's ever celebrations.

What’s more the above link is made into an interview type thing with a male and female voices, no names between the 2 people or computer voices talking … the way they interact is really strange, bizarre and extremely odd. I would have thought one knows about ahf and the other one is listening and learning about ahf in the conversation see how that changes.
Never seen anything like it. Across the board It always rings alarm bells when any specific poster only posts on 1 particular stock, does not recognize the past & see the history as irrelevant, let alone boast selling tesla to go ALL in on ahf. And pay to write articles about them with some extremely interesting, generated pictures. Some weird words and numbers there months with number that go beyond 31 days. Ever seen a month with yes 36 days shortened to JED or FED? WTF!!! Not to mention the monkey face or have you have ever seen a 2-legged cow? yes, a 2-legged cow with only the right legs!! not only are AHF cutting costs they are also cutting BUST.
Not only is jimbo talking 40 cents he is also talking 4-billion-dollar market cap too.

you should know what a daigou is and how to spell that if your know what you are talking about. what’s DAIGOO ? and 82 milk? See 1^st few pages for reference, some highlights below, the way words are said and pronounced, you have to listen to it. The daigou model has a lot of flaws in it. In a nutshell its just anyone buying it off the shelf and posting it to china, some have bigger operations that others Chinese that live in Australia, university students doing it to make a few dollars, you don’t have to be Asian to do it, but ideally you if you can’t write in mandarin and speak it makes it more time consuming and the time to get the product it is very time consuming. In Victoria Glen Waverley and Box hill is bare streets to what it once was, the conditions and costs and risks have changed materially in the last few years. daigou’s are not corporations either, individuals and lost or damaged product reduces the daigou supply. Tins that reach china may not always reach customers in that model either. There is a limit how much can go in a box. If you know you know. Just google up daigou flaws and get a real understanding

“At the helm, you have Peter Nathan as Executive Chairman. Now, he was instrumental in the phenomenal growth of 82 Milk”

“Zhang is a giant in the world of Chinese cross-border trade. He built his own company, AZ Global, into a $400 million powerhouse by connecting Australian and New Zealand products with Chinese consumers. Wow. And he achieved this through a deep understanding of distribution models, like Daigoo and O2O. Okay. Hold on. Yeah. I'm familiar with e-commerce. Right. But could you break down Daigoo and O2O for me? Of course. Thanks. Daigoo, in some pimple terms,”

With a sentence like this makes it fairly confusing for sure.

You mentioned profitability. I did. It's one of the key areas AHF will be focusing on in the coming year. What steps are they taking to ensure they're on a path to strong financial performance? They've already made some smart moves. Like what? To streamline their operations and boost their margins. For example, they discontinued their fresh milk processing business and sold off some non-core assets. So they're trimming the fat, so to speak, exactly, and doubling down on what they do best. That's right. That sounds like a sensible strategy. It is. But they're also under-focused on controlling costs and optimizing their supply chain,

Now let's talk about the financial side of things. Okay. You mentioned profitability. I did. It's one of the key areas AHF will be focusing on in the coming year. What steps are they taking to ensure they're on a path to strong financial performance? They've already made some smart moves. Like what? To streamline their operations and boost their margins. For example, they discontinued their fresh milk processing business and sold off some non-core assets. So they're trimming the fat, so to speak, exactly, and doubling down on what they do best. That's right. That sounds like a sensible strategy. It is. But they're also under-focused on controlling costs and optimizing their supply chain, which is crucial in a competitive market like China. For sure. With that initial revenue stream secured through the McCree partnership, it seems like- It does. They're starting from a strong position. They are. Quite a story, isn't it? It's pretty impressive. You have this relatively small company, currently valued at around $00 million, poised to potentially disrupt a $24 billion market. Wow. It's almost like watching David- You know, right? ... preparing to take on Goliath. It is quite remarkable. And what's particularly striking- Yeah, what is? ... is their strategic approach. What about it? They're not just throwing money at the problem.

the word profitability is mentioned 8 times
the word team is mentioned over 20 times
the word Andy is mentioned 6 times
the word $24 billion is mentioned 7 times
ahf market cap is mentioned 6 or 7 times
china/Chinese is mentioned a whopping 46 times
but not mentioned that they have NEVER made a profitselling a lot of their land is not mentioned? must be “non-core” assets… so non-core that some was leased back .past mistakes from the board are not mentioned, none of the land assets should have been sold. Not making a profit does not pay down debt enough.

Milk sales alone do not support the powder side of the company. It says so in the annual report. Page

Shares on issue is mentioned zero times
Ahf income is mentioned Zero times
Ahf annual milk production is mentioned zero times
Ahf cattle numbers is mentioned zero times
Ahf previous china failed ambitions mentioned zero times
who is the author trying to mislead? they have no profitability and never have to date .1^st they have to have/own A PROFIT before they can build on the actual profit. Building towards profitability is honest and accurate, this is a LIE to say build on their profitability , “their” meaning the belonging to or associated with a profit. Which is nonexistent so that’s a total fabrication to structure the sentence in such a misleading way. To make out they are in better shape than they are.

On a side note on the land asset sales, - it has been some good years weather wise of late , but when it’s not costs are going to increases a lot, remember it’s a “organic farm” so hay/silage and grains cost bought in it is has to be that of certified organic , not any fodder from any local farms that are not certified organic can be used if they are truly honest in their operations.
The operations of an organic farm are not mentioned in the risks and caution and seasonal adjustments would factor this into the equation. This has been raised and mentioned many times over the years, I’m sure that times organic farms cut corners and costs for sure and do all the things they are not meant too. Not saying they are cutting corners. Costs are certain to increase with more production and longer shifts if required not to mention increased energy costs as well.

From the recent presentation - 27 Nov 2024 2924-02886427-3A656754

Fy 2024 revenue of 6.26 million
Fy net loss of 7.22 million
Assets 26 million.

6 million in cash.
imp

Page 6 - 5 point plan number -4 become a key co packer for nutura to improve plant utilization .

The annual report came out in

Now looking at the most recent annual report see page page 65 of 76 . we have this below numbers
Column 1
30 June 2024
Biological Assets
$1,635,139

Column 1
Land and buildings
Column 1
$13,444,216
For a combined total of
$15,079,35530 June 2023
Biological Assets
$3,535,686
Land and buildings
20,500,000

For a combined total of
24,035,686

I ask why they need this nutura deal? what does it say about their own canning operation. It raises more questions than answers, it’s a concern let’s consider it for a moment and take a look

That’s an interesting sentence and gives some indication of their current operations at Nutura, to improve plant utilization

1^st nutura , its not ahf’s plant ahf are not operating it.
2^nd what about AHF improving their own plant operations, And know the ins and outs of that and run it at capacity efficiently, or is it actually cheaper to get someone else that knows what they are doing to make it all for them? Quality is important . As I keep mentioning history is important. Past operations had packaging issues with their yogurts or little suckies quality is a very important issue. A few dud tins will be detrimental to ahf.

Volume and demand seem to be unknown. Iit really should be cheaper for them to run their own operations at capacity(if they have the demand?) what is the likely hood of a ahf -futura merger?

More labels more brands all mean more costs in marketing and production costs, oh but you said they reduce marketing.

Page 9 Q&A page – totally blank!Not a great look , take it out if there is nothing, no questions because no one cares or asked ??? embarrassing
Thank you! with a ! really

28 Aug 2023 FY23 Results Update https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02703172-3A624526 this type of result has be reoccurring many times over.

You have to know the history of this company to understand anything about how it is going to move forward and learn from past mistakes, new management or not. You need to understand the many failures in the past. All the fresh milk sales the number of different formulas tins they have tried and failed , chemist warehouse agreement … doing and trying the same past mistake again is not learning from your mistakes “you're” the past companies mistakes under different management, but new management should have studied this company with a fine-tooth comb and know everything possible and every skeleton in all the closets.

One can spend hours “making up 9 pages of fluff “with next to zero numbers about ahf, no mention of the share price, no mention of cash flows incomes and costs, accumulated past losses, basically nothing, only the mentioning of the overpriced market cap on a company about 6 times.

that has failed to ever make a profit a few times. No mention of any of ahf history in trying to crack the Chinese market. Lots of mentions of the board been a “dream team” and “rock stars” “guru’s & . No mention of conflicts of interest between board members and related party transactions.

Even with apparent minimum orders of 2.5 million dollars from mutree that does not mean it can be a done at a profit. To fill this order will likely to face increased cost, I don’t know all the fine print , what if ahf fail to deliver on a mutree order ?
The mentions of risk facing the company in its new quest in china is amusing after it it was mentions 50 odd times, no mentions of past mistake they have made trying to crack china market before , it has to truly critical and mention the past failures to be taken seriously as an article especially with no author who has paid extra post on twitter .

“With that initial revenue stream secured through the McCree partnership “, in the same article it’s also spelt mutri not the real name of Mutree . (AI is great …. Let’s create dumber & more lazy people in many instances)

Which is 100,000 tins for 2.5 million. So that’s a base price of 25 dollars a tin. Mutree has to make money on this deal too. That will sell it for a profit, possible to make more profit out of the arrangement then ahf

2.5 million dollars IS NOT profit it is revenue; how much profit will be made on that 2.5 million is unknown.

If AHF can successfully execute its strategy, we could be witnessing the birth of a global powerhouse in the infant formula industry. Okay. So let's bring this all together. Right. We have AHF, a $50 million company with a bold vision to capture a share of the $24 billion Chinese infant formula market. They have a solid foundation, a winning product, and a leadership team that knows how to navigate the complexities of the Asian market

Taking a snippet from the mutree announcement it clearly says,
11 Sep 2024 - Entry into Manufacturing Agreement with Nutura Organic Ltd
https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02851358-3A650410

AHF does not consider that the manufacturing agreement with nutura to be immediately financially material, as sales volumes are NOT YET KNOWN,

Very interest to see what some people may value the company at! Especially as they are talking 35 – 40 cents! WTF! HOW? how can anyone get such a value of 35-40 cents for ahf when they still can’t make a profit!? The company is overpriced already that is significantly clear. The PE ratio is crazy insane to value this at 35-40c plus . how much would even a profit truly value the company at, even a company that deserves a management premium built in to the price, that is not the proven case here as yet. From the so-called rock stars and dream team of dairy mentioned so many times in this propaganda piece

so many questions to what ahf are doing, with statement like ,

And AHF has a team that's fluent in that language. Yes, they do. They've assembled a dedicated regulatory team in China, staffed with experts who are well-versed in the local requirements. They are. They're also working closely with Chinese authorities to ensure transparency and build trust.

How many are there ?, they are not free to do this job either. Making a profit and doing all of the above is going to be extremely difficult with current assets and production. All these cost cuts make it hard to do what they plan and aim for a 1 dollar profit let alone millions.
So what is AHF worth? Or a estimated valuation ?

The fluff piece does not mention current milk production on the actual farm at all any basic numbers of how many litres of raw milk it takes to make 1 tin of formula , milk prices, etc Not once has the ahf share price even been mentioned in the fluff pieces., how odd. Any valuation must have some realistic number to make such claims of 40 cents, 40 cent valuation with current shares on issue also no mentions .

If ahf cant supply 100,000 tins a years we have a problem,
If ahf cant make 100,000 tins at a profit that’s still a problem
If ahf have to pay someone else to make 100,00 tins it’s cost and operational problem
If ahf make too much tins that don’t sell or have to be written off…. have we seen that problem before..

shares on issue are 743,321,815 , never saw any consideration of dilution in the quest for 30c share pipe dream price.

Debt has worked so well for the company in the past . and share purchase plans have been very poor result from people putting money in a bottomless pit in the past.

each and every valuation below s more and more outrageous until they can demonstrate they can do it efficiently in every facet and make money , not going to do that this calendar year it looks that way.
743,321,815 @ 20c 148 million
743,321,815 @ 30c 222 million
743,321,815 @ 60c 445 million

We also have another crazy image with phase 3 of ahf with market cap of 4 billion . 4 billion share very possible, 4 billion dollars extremely unlikely
Not too hard to work out the share price for a 4billion market cap. But I don’t need to know that fantasy figure
Here is the most recent annual report
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5fa46d821b59b51653fbbab3/t/66d552c7780665724ace141b/1725256399633/69200-adnl-annual-report-2024.pdf
Column 1 Column 2 Column 3 Column 4 Column 5 Column 6
30 Aug 20241:21pm 1:21pm ·AHF
AUSTRALIAN DAIRY NUTRITIONALS LIMITED AUSTRALIAN DAIRY NUTRITIONALS LIMITED
yes
Appendix 4E and Annual Report to Shareholders

You would think some basic numbers would be mandatory to back up some bold claims not just praise for the “team” and some very descriptive and positive words about the team, very little on the risk and hurdles along the way .My knowledge in the industry puts some of this in to the valuations. The results are highly likely to be below expectations as they have always historically been, above expectation results would be an

Reliability and consistency is a fantastic trait in a company and in management. They do tick the boxes for that category but for all the wrong reasons.

Their judgement has been very poor year in year out. Very consistent and reliable you can count on it.
Filing report reliably late in the due dates, consistently

Once again Sales expectations from ahf has always been far too high ,and sold well below expectations on every occasion . reliably and consistently As mention in annual report. See attached captures from annual report.

Ahf have 3 leases to renew this calendar year, we all know that rental cost is going to increase, extra costs if they have to relocate, thise one off expense they always find a way into the quarterly – again reliably and consistently.

You may read numbers a few numbers lower like 7 to 8 litres/ kg , but with an organic farms and seasonal adjustments and the inexperience and unproven ahf factory skills and lack of experience we will go with yearly average of 10 litres a tin. You can’t run the plan 24 hours a day 7days a week. It needs to be washed and maintained as well. Possible total output and realistic output reduce the numbers.

It has not been said in any of these propaganda pieces of how many milk tin the company is capable of pumping out, plenty of pumping up the team and potential thou!!, but no production guidance as would be the norm for many operations.

12 cent this year maybe, the current share price is barely realistic as it is with the state of operations and loss making activities. There is little reason to value it much more than current share price.

glad im not all in 100% on this stock i have enough experience in the dairy industry to question these 30 cent valuation on what we see for current operations

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The weird bits you highlighted is just AI / Chat GPT generated slop.

It's a very good point about capacity constraints. The issue I've been arguing is that the cost outlay required to meet this hasn't yet been seen.

To be honest I don't know where "profitable this year" even entered the conversation. They are already nearing $2M in the red as of 1H25 and they have a lot if manufacturing and a new product launch ahead of them. It's really clear when they will even begin seeing meaningful revenue from the new product or what the margins look like (as you point out).

There is a good chance they will end up closer to last year's $7M loss than they will be to breaking even this year.

(20min delay)
Last 4.2¢		Change 0.000(0.00%)		Mkt cap ! $31.21M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
4.2¢	4.2¢	4.2¢	$1.469K	34.97K

No.	Vol.	Price($)
4	444491	0.042
1	11535	0.041
7	1863626	0.040
1	500000	0.039
1	100000	0.038

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.044	219393	4
0.045	120000	2
0.046	170000	2
0.047	160000	2
0.048	925606	3

The weird bits you highlighted is just AI / Chat GPT generated...

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