ahug trading halt this morning, page-3

Well I'll stick my neck out now that there is a trading halt.

I expect Allco will get about the low end of the value of the residuals in the Alleasing trust. Which would be about 175M. This would cover all of their mezanine financing leaving nothing (more or less) for AHUG. I think Allco will then kick 75M of that to AHUG holders for about 50c on the dollar and Allco will get out 100M of much needed cash.

If Allco held tight and ran down the trust I expect AHUG holders (who would effectively become equity holders) would get about 60c on the dollar and Allco would get all their mezanine finance back. Allco needs 100M today more than it needs 170M in a few years time. Therefore it's a win win.

Even a bad case pays out about 20c on the dollar for AHUG as long as the trust goes for about 175M, even if allco offer nothing back to AHUG holders (which simply isn't going to happen because AHUG holders will block the sale).

I'm interested in other thoughts (especially as we can all lay our cards on the table without fear of affecting the market).