Excellent analysis... only flaw is market is forward...

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shakattack

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01/08/16

16:45

Post #: 18418647
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Originally posted by MarkieMills ↑

Well - I don't really want to influence anybody, in that I would hate for somebody to make a decision based on my admittedly superficial analysis, and lose money. As a trader I mainly like keeping a verifiable track of my thoughts for better or worse (worse especially in resources stocks sadly). BTW I can see an inconsistency in my adjustments for GST, as not everything is captured in Australia for a start.

However re dividends - you could come up with a very rough proxy for EBIT, by taking FCF excluding tax and interest (i.e. op + inv CF, minus net i and t). With D and A being captured by an assumption that the investment taking place is averaging out as approximating DA over four years.
From that "proxy EBIT" over the last four years You get a total of 186.5m (including adjusting for ipo costs mentioned as a one off). That is $46.6m pa. net interest was about $10m in FY 15 - (although should be higher now with buyback and dists), leaving my "PBT proxy" at 36.6, then assume 30% tax and you have 25.6m NPAT proxy. This would be about 4.6 cps. So assuming a very high payout ratio of 80%, they might, at a guess, be able to genuinely afford 3.7 cps fully franked. Obviously these numbers are very flawed, but the best I can do with only four years of lumpy info (not that anybody is asking me to do these numbers - lol). By my backwards looking numbers this is sitting at a "proxy PE" ratio of 30x ATM.

Maybe little cap ex is required over the next few years? That would improve the numbers a bit, but would be a big assumption IMO.

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Excellent analysis... only flaw is market is forward looking....when you redo the multiples on forecast FY16f NPAT of 85%*FY15A ($76.1m) = $64.7m the multiples are more like 11.8x (PE).

PE multiple of 30x would imply mkt cap of c$1.9b and share price of $3.54. (considerable upside from current share price).

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AHY Price at posting: $1.40 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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Excellent analysis... only flaw is market is forward...

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