A pattern in CR
A lot of posters have highlighted their concerns about a large number of shares.I thought I would put together a list of events that happened in 2013 and 2012 to highlight a pattern.
In December 2012 we raised 2 Million at .02.
Followed by
20/12/2012 Allied announces successful grant for Coridon's HPV vaccine
10/01/2013 Allied's hernia and pelvic floor results
06/02/2013 Allied's CardioCel superior for seeding stem cells
13/02/2013 Allied announces ISO 13485 certification for CardioCel
Within a span of 2 months we had 4 major announcements all referring to milestones.
Trading from 0.02 on 21 st December at 0.02 we hit 0.032 sometimes in February.A rise of 50%.
In Sept 2013 after via rights we raised 10 Million at 0.05
Followed by
25/09/2013 5 year extension data for Allied's CardioCel
08/10/2013 8 Surgeons get approval to use CardioCel in adult patients
17/10/2013Allied Herpes Phase I Trial progress update
08/11/2013 Allied makes first sale of CardioCel into Europe
12/12/2013 Admedus Acquires Manufacturing Facility
Within a span of 3 months we had 5 major announcements all referring to milestones. At least, one of which (manufacturing facility) had all of us by surprise.
Trading from 0.073 on 23 rd sep we hit 0.175 in January within a span of 4 months.A rise of approx 250%.
A pattern in Twiggy's selling
Feb 2013- Twiggy sold 2.8 percent of his share in the company. Down 15.05 % from 17.84%
Followed by at least 4 major announcements in the next 2 months.
30 July- Twiggy acquired 2% to go back to 17%
I am surprised no one has seem to deduce that this could be for tax purposes ?
25 Oct- Twiggy acquires back his 17.75 percent . Almost equivalent to what he had in Feb 2013.
Let me hazard a guess and say that he paid more for these shares.
30 Oct- He sells again to go down to 15.80%
Followed by atleast 2 major announcement by the end of the year.
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I have highlighted this before in one of the other threads at OBJ. Obviously work on this one was done by ABDM. Let me put it here again.
Twiggy's action were quite ethical and confidence boosting specially for a retail investor.That to me was a the best example of corporate ethics.
When Twiggy sold, I was quite disappointed. I thought that maybe this stock has already hit it's high and nothing substantial will happen for the near distant future. I still kept on holding because of the fundamentals.
However multiple positive announcement followed. It can be argued that Twiggy would have a possible insight on the news coming. He therefore chose to sell before and NOT after the news.
See the details as highlighted by ABDM below.
Why did Fortescue's, Andrew Forrest cash in some of his FMG holdings only two weeks before signing FMG's most historical company making deal with the Chinese...?
03/08/2004: FMG - Appendix 3Y Andrew Forrest sells 2,000,000 on market
20/08/2004: FMG - Trading Halt
23/08/2004: FMG - China Signs to Build Railway
After the successful ASX debut of Forrest's FMG bio-spin-out, AHZ bringing with him the inaugural CFO and Director of Fortescue Metals from its inception, why did Mr Forrest sell 24.4m of his AHZ holdings on market only 3 days before the company launched its new regenerative product platform into Europe?
04/11/2013: AHZ - Andrew Forrest sells 24.5m on market
07/11/2013: AHZ - Allied makes first sale of CardioCel into Europe
Why did Mr Forrest sell an additional 16.5m AHZ shares on market only two weeks prior to the company announcing the results of a highly anticipated Interim Phase I clinical trial from the work of his close friend, Professor Frazer?
13/01/2014: AHZ - Andrew Forrest sells 16.5m on market
02/02/2014: AHZ - Admedus Herpes Interim Phase I Results
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Other caveats
ADAPT tissue engineering and Pelvic Floor repairs and Hernia.
While Cardiocel is the current revenue maker right now, what people seem to forget that ADAPT was already tested and reported back in 2012 as no calcification in a market major announcement.
Market opportunity for this alone is 750 Million as highlighted in the investor presentation.
In the latest CR letter it was highlighted that
A validated platform to develop.......hernia and pelvic floor repair.
I am not sure why people forget this, but this will also bring similar amount of revenue as Cardiocel and possibly more.
In slide 16 of the investor presentation, it is highlighted that Hernia repair product will be filed and market launched in 2015/2016.
Production
Potential peak annual production of over 100K units.What is interesting though is , it says that ability to manufacture other regenerative tissue products.
Means in addition to the 100K , we can produce more of other products.
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In May 2014 we are raising 10 M at 0.10
I would like to believe that every time money is being raised , we are doubling the rate at which we raise it.
Management has a fair understanding of this process and I believe the next CR would not be lower than 15 cents.
So If you are holding it at 15 cents or lower, you will turn green in the foreseeable future.
I will also hazard a guess and says that management already have some announcements in the works. We will soon have market announcements on one of the following ?
- That US order. Whoever placed it, immediately triggered a CR.
- Numbers of sales in the next update
- Something unexpected
- Possibly some news about vaccines.
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Accounting for Meerkat's bearish sentiment and my fair valued sentiment, I would say that this will hit a high trough of at least 22cents before 31st December.
It will most certainly trade at 20 cents before December , doubling your money.
Although the last part is my opinions and you should take it with a pinch of salt.
(20min delay)