aim - doesn't add up ..., page-11

I've been doing some research .. as I was thinking about jumping in tomorrow if the estimates COULD be right ... having found them to be possibly incredibly inflated and after throwing it around a bit decided to share with you the following ... I MUST STATE ... this is not a ramp as I dont hold and wont hold based on the following ... it relates to Impala's platinum holdings who run the Two Rivers mine directly next door to the Mooiplats potential mine ... I've done my sums and their resources come in at around 3.4m ounces taken out over 20 years...

Impala Platinum (Implats)

Impala is South Africa’s 2nd largest producer. Implats also has a 27% share in LonMin, South Africa’s other major producer, as well as interests in Aquarius Platinum, who operate the Kroondal mine near Rustenburg. Implats produced just under 1.03 Moz PGM in 2002, including 493 000oz palladium and 131 000 oz rhodium. Plans are underway to boost platinum production to 870 000 oz by 2003. Impala has had several legal disputes with the local Bafokeng tribe that have laid claim to the mineral rights over which Impala are currently mining. A long-standing issue has been finally resolved, with the Bafokeng tribe being paid large royalties. Implats currently has two mines, the Bafokeng North and Wildebeesfontein South situated on the western limb of the BIC. The Merensky Reef and UG2 are exploited using underground methods.

Lonmin [LSE:LMI] is challenging its big South African rivals by speeding up its expansion plans. The world's third-biggest producer of platinum group metals says it now intends to boost annual platinum production capacity from the present 670,000 ounces to 870,000 ounces by 2003 instead of 2008, its previous target date.
Based on uncertainties regarding Russian palladium and platinum supplies and subsequent record prices for PGM's, Impala are re opening the underground Crocodile River Mine. Crocodile River managed to produce 39 100 oz platinum concentrate in its first year of full operation in 2002, with full capacity expected to be reached by the end of 2003. The eventual target remains 50 000 oz platinum. The Kennedy Vale mine on the eastern limb could also be reopened, pending the platinum and palladium price. A feasibility study is to be completed in 2003 and a decision to go ahead with the development of Kennedy's Vale will be based on resource and market evaluations, expected to be finalised by early 2004. Implats is also refining the matte produced from the new Kroondal Mine, operated by Aquarius Platinum. Mineral resources from the UG2 and Merensky Reefs at Implats' operations have been estimated at containing a total of over 31 Moz of platinum.

Impala and Anglovaal Mining (Avmin) have successfully bid for the Dwarsrivier PGM property located upon the Eastern Limb of the Bushveld. The property (that hosts both PGM bearing Merensky and UG2 reefs) is anticipated to produce between 160 - 170 000 oz PGM per year over a 20 year life. Capital costs have been estimated at approximately $50 million. Avmin will operate the mine to be called Two Rivers. Avmin will have 55%, with Implats the remaining 45%. The property has significant expansion potential through the Kennedys Vale PGM deposit that borders on Dwarsrivier. Kennedys Vale is owned by Barplats in which Implats has a significant shareholding.

Implats have completed a feasibility study at its Marula (previously Winaarshoek) property, located on the Eastern Limb of the BIC, near the Atok mine operated by Anglo Platinum. Proven and probable reserves totaling 62.5 Mt grading at 5.54 g/t, containing 11 Moz PGE. At full production, Marula will produce over 200 000 oz platinum/year over a 30 year period. Production at Marula is expected to commence in 2004, reaching full capacity for Phase 1 of 103 000 oz/year in 2005. Empowerment company Mmakau Mining Ltd has been chosen by Impala as its primary black empowerment vehicle for the development of Marula. At present , Mmakau is earning a 10% interest in Marula.