Hi All,
Been following the posts; good reading overall.
Here are just some of my own 'aimless' thoughts (and thoughts that are not to be regarded as any sort of advice!);
* Capital raising ~ Flory in latest comment (minesite http://www.minesite.com/storyFull.php?storySeq=3234 ) says that a debt-equity arrangement will be used and in the ratio 60:40 at present. Note that this is a rise from way back in 08/2005 where the expectation was that $10m pounds of the $40m pounds would be equity. That to me reads a greater confidence in raising $ from the market compared to 4 months ago; I thought this to be a positive thing. Reduced debt means less need to have hedges in place to satisfy financing requirements. Given the valuation of the company based on its BFS, one would expect that the company would be hoping for a capital raising price closer to the valuation level stated in their BFS. They probably wont get that but given the current climate with zinc prices and also with the help of their financial help, we should see a fair amount. 'Fair' I wouldn't know but I hope will be at a decent premium :-)
* Timeliness ~ My concern is whether they deliver on time? They have delivered the BFS on-time as indicated in their
PPT in Nov, though prior to that, they indicated financing arrangements to be in place by Jan 06. Lateness might be
a concern but if it means getting a better deal or due to changed circumstances; in which case it has been positive,
then bring on the revised schedule which suggest off-take this month and then financing by april. The article by
minesite (above) mentions though that the financing could occur in June.
* Shareholders ~ Just thought Id share some information some may already know. ANZ Nominess holds approx 4.96% - the
last known holding for ANZ after they sold 500k shares on market between 10-12 January. Present holding ~ 25.3 m
shares
* Availability of Skilled Persons ~ Its hard to know what holds for the future but every person has their price. You
don't need an army to manage this plant, a couple of skilled managers will do - just as has been done with miners
operating in so called third world economies like Oxiana did. MArc is no Owen Hegarty but he only needs to hire a
person a dash of OH's brain :-) With the current share price, it wont be difficult offering interested persons to
relocate to Burkina for a few years; it might not even be a big relocation; perhaps from across Ghana! :p
* Off-take agreements ~ This has 2 value points I believe to the project. The first will be that it will confirm the viability of the project and induce a rerating. The second point I believe is that AIM could choose to 'sell' a portion to a particular buyer and in return; could gain access to some of the skilled that it will require to have the mine operating.
* Infrastructure development in Burkina ~ This is happening or at least the information contained here suggests so
http://www.export.gov.il/_Uploads/841pddec05.doc, the interesting bit there the planned development of the rail is
mentioned. The document also lists other developments happening which is all very positive from that perspective.
Finally, things are going very well in Ghana (home of Anglo Ashanti) at the moment so its good to see the link up to
Ghana.
* Mine development in Africa - Love it or hate it. The following article gives some perspective on mining in Africa
http://free.financialmail.co.za/05/1223/business/abus.htm
* Zambia ~ This JV with BHP could be a sleeper for AIM. Basically AIM does not have to do anything and if there is a successful outcome, then it will just be a case of at what price is it worth to BHP. Zambia is not new to mining as given by the operations of First Quantum as well as the upcoming start of an AUstralian company's operations (Equinox). Additionally, the Zambian government has just announced new incentives for 2006. See my posting on "EQN"
* Conclusion ~ Still a spec by any measure and lots of risks unaccounted for. But with each passing piece of (positive!) news, it will lend to the credibility of the company and its plans. I hold AIM/AIMOs.
Good luck to all!
DT
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