aio valuation based on market capitalisation

I am trying to value the current SP of AIO based on past capitalisation.

Before the chrisis AIO had 698 million shares at $10 per share with a capitalisation of 7 billion.

After the new issue the 2651 million shares at 2.64 per share gives a capitalisation of 7 billion.

Therefore based on market capitalisation the price should be around 2.64 per share.

However the $10 share price was at the height of the boom. So even if you take a capitalisation of 5 billion instead of 7 billion, the 2651 million shares at 1.89 per share will give you 5 billion capitalisation. Please note that I have reduced the capitalisation by 2 billion from the height.

You also need to take into account the fact that AIO will not be paying interest on 2 billion worth of loans which means a saving of 200 million per annum if interest rate is taken at 10%. However, more dividends will have to be paid to shareholders. There is also the fact that the company is now better capitalised with low debt and liquidation risk has gone. I believe that AIO may consder buying some other assets of companies in crisis such as BBI and Macqua infra if they will go cheap.

The current price is a bargain and institutions have realised this. I predict AIO will be $2 by the end of June unless the Dow plunges. Goodluck all holders.

Selmax, I'd like your opinion on this.