Hey Bob
With all due respect and agreeing that SDV is great and very important for shareholders, I really have to take you to task for your concerns about over supply.
Based on the numbers presented in 2020 we have supply around 120kt above 2015 supply. I note that you state ignoring EV. However with all due respect the supply represents 2.4m EV's in 2020 above the 2015 base case assuming 50kg per car. This ignores battery storage. If demand is not at least at this level by 2020 then I believe the whole renewables industries have problems IMO.
With the level of EV take up expected by 2020 if production of EV's in China alone is not 2.4m vehicles i will give the game away.
I would be more concerned that there is insufficient supply to maintain the new battery factories and meet demand rather than an over supply situation.
It is all well and good being a low cost producer. However the economics have to be there to justify the existence of the industry. If there is insufficient supply manufacturers will seek alternatives as they will have no choice and no new capital will be deployed in then Li space.
I sometimes wonder if the Petro industries are not behind this constant misrepresentation of the demand/supply dynamics of the Li economics. If they can convince enough people there will be oversupply then they can invest cheaply.
However if they can convince enough people there will be no demand then we are all dead in the water and take up EV's will stall and the industy will die as there will be insufficient investment in processing and battery production to move the EV away from being a novelty.
As a long term holder which do you believe is more of a threat to GXY?
I believe the GXY Swiss investment presentation provides a more balanced view of the supply demand dynamics.
I personally believe that despite what the investment banks think, there is more likely to be an undersupply well into the 2020's. However being fair to you Bob, the big end of town agree with you not me unfortunately.
I suppose then it is up to the hearts and people who have the ear of the industry and the industry itself to start to disseminate clearer demand numbers. I have presented mine on numerous occasions to no real effect.
Therefore we need to hear from somebody who will be listened to rather than a drop kick like me!
I note ACs discussions with Anthony covers this in part but I think somebody needs to commission industry research and make it available across the industry maybe through the Australian Lithium Council or other industry body yet to be formed!
We need an independent voice for the industry now!
That said SDV will make GXY a low cost producers which will be great for shareholders. However I believe even then prices will still be very strong and higher than the 2017 prices.
A golden age for LI is coming IMO but DYOR of both the supply and demand side to get a clearer picture IMHO.
