Sorry about that I pushed the wrong button, so will start again:
I thought it was an interesting juncture in our ongoing saga for a few charts again, so without any further ado some charts.
First up is AJM, this is a 12mth chart and AJM continues to be ruled by the upper line of the trend channel, which has been controlling SP for the last 12mths. The trendline is starting to look mature to me , and even though AJM has been going lower, the price has been sitting just below the upper trendline for nearly 2mths now - this is however, in clear contrast with the charts I will post further in.
View attachment 1897747
I would also add here, that at the minute the AJM MC is $128.8m, which is a value well below the cost of the plant which was $140m (I believe), then you could add the value of AJMs' tenements, any contractual arrangements which are bringing income now every qtr + more, my point is the current SP is ridiculously undervalued (regardless of any peer comparisons in which AJM sits in a strongly competitive position anyway). How low can it go - I don't think much lower - and I bought more yesterday.
Next chart is LIT 2 year chart:
View attachment 1897765
Some here may recall that I was a little enthused about a break above the upper trendline back in Sept 2018, and I clearly didn't have any follow up to support my wishful thinking back then, and since that point there have been a number of occasions that LIT showed some positive signs.
Right now we have the most substantial divergence in LIT price action in over 2yrs, at present LIT is well clear of the upper trendline not only in terms of price, but the other powerful technical indicator here is the amount of time LIT has been above said trendline - for well over 2mths LIT is above trend, this has not happened previously in this trend.
Next chart 12mth LIT:
View attachment 1897798
Note a new trend channel (also on 2yr chart) denoted by the purple lines in lower right, this is the most encouraging development I have been able to glean on LIT in 2 years, I won't say a lot more - the charts say it all, however I will also add that in terms of price LIT is sitting further above the upper black trendline than any other time in last 2 years also.
Another thing I want to mention here is the red horizontal line, it marks the low that was set on 4th January 2019, this low in LIT was set just 3 days after the low in the S&P500 on 29th Dec 2018. For me the red line is important from a TA perspective, because from that view of things, if LIT can close this year above the red line it would be bullish.
Next chart is based on a CFD that tracks contract lithium prices:
View attachment 1897822
This is a 2 year chart of the above mentioned instrument, it clearly bears a strong resemblance to the 2 year LIT chart, but the important thing of note from my view of things is that we have a nice uptrend in the lower right corner (I have been waiting a few weeks on this because IMO it was important for a break above US$105). I really would like to see US$110- cleared, from a TA view that would be very promising.
What gives me some encouragement here, is that the lithium price chart is giving some confirmation to the story that is unfolding in LIT. There hasn't been any price action as positive as this for a long time - but if this can continue (and I am bullish the S&P500 for another month before a possible correction) going into 2020 we may be about to feel a change in the direction of the winds here.
I have come to a realization that I don't really trust a lot of brokerage analysis of this market (or a lot of others for that matter); the brokerages mostly talk their book and they will also trade contrary to their stated analysis' position. It is better IMHO to do your own research.
Have a great Christmas everyone, cheers and GLTAH
mc
