So what's the inspiration for chucking in on this? My sums for...

So what's the inspiration for chucking in on this? My sums for this quarter also showed an extremely tight outcome so a buffer is probably necessary. I also believe that Altura is well suited to scrape through here under the weight of pretty odious interest, crummy commodity price and a potentially slowing world economy in general. Therefore an improvement in any one of these things (refinance, sector turnaround, china deal etc) would probably on it's own be enough to at least ensure survival and start powering towards the goal we know is there in the face of the EV tide.

The credit markets aren't what they were (another sign of the world economy factor) but I also believe that refinancing should be possible with relative ease from here on account of the production/shipping numbers and the expected improvement through end of year. Altura vs peers is sitting relatively pretty and any further failures in them could only increase demand for their product which is clearly well regarded.

But why not buy on market now or even later rather than participate in the spp? We have to be gambling on at least some improvement in one of the three factors mentioned previously which is not a great strategy. The lithium macro in 3 years time is obvious, but even with a lift in production to nameplate there are question marks that no doubt would just lead to a lower price on market below the spp price anyway.

Again, I believe that refinancing is more than possible but I don't know when, and that's the key. Is it soon enough to put a floor under the price of the spp? Not sure. With a 10x multiplier at this MC it implies earnings at OZ$13mil. That's a pretty paltry margin per ton on nameplate, OZ$59 with nothing else considered obviously.

In my opinion Altura can make it through barely just by reaching nameplate but it would be intense. Any improvement in the situation would make it easier and easier. But is the spp price the bottom?