AJM Speculation, page-178

On some of the speculation we see here AJM is a basket case.........but this is all short term stuff, from people who are panicked, or others who have ulterior motivations. AJM is going to be here for quite a while, selling their high quality spodumene to the global market. The mine is working, the plant is ramping up (we would like to know how production is going though).

And the letters of credit will have been banked, shipment is not OK'd until letter of credit has been received. We don't know how much has been paid for our spod yet - but the next qtrly will be revealing, the most important thing is the mine & plant are working and money is coming in.

On recent industry pricing AJM will be paid toward the higher end of their off-take pricing scale .....whats not to like. That is the $64 dollar question. My take for what it is worth is the questions that arise from the whole JRO scenario - the market does not like uncertainty and we still don't really know what is happening with JRO - and until AJM management know exactly what is going on (which is now hopefully sooner than later) with JRO and what decisions they need to make, the market will not be any the wiser.

Surely their ridiculous take over bid is a non event and will JRO even survive as a trading entity, it looks as if JRO will be bailed out - but we still don't know for sure - uncertainty. Will JRO still be in a position to take up their share of the off-take agreement they have with AJM - uncertainty (JB recently said the off-take will be honoured or some such similar words). Will AJM make an off-take agreement with another battery maker, have they already signed an agreement with someone else - more uncertainty.

JB and the AJM Board can't say too much about anything because of their business involvement with JRO, AJM management are snookered, and as I said above until JRO actually get to a point where they know what is happening .......then no-one else will. I have got to a point where I don't like JRO at all, and I think they are a bunch of ratbags who couldn't organize a chook raffle.

I have put together a little comparison of Oz lithiums over the last week

Unfortunately AJM seems to be under-performing right at the present, without doubt some of our Oz lithium peers have been doing better, the bounce back in lithiums (and cobalts) has coincided with an upturn in the major US indices and LIT.

I got a bit excited about LIT a few weeks back as it began to break through a six month down trend line, unfortunately it turned back down and hit a new 16 month low, however LIT is backing up for another break through and this could be real thing this time.
The lithium and cobalt sector have been belted badly this year, the base metals complex turned down in mid Jan, then late Jan the major US indices corrected for over 2 months. The base metals are still down, we have just had another stock market correction, the Fed is raising rates and the market is unsettled by that.

The above has played very nicely into the hands of big instos and shorters who have had a field day with many retail investors, I am sure many retailers have had horrible years. The instos have deep pockets and my bet is that they have been accumulating lithiums and cobalts on the cheap.

The EV revolution is burgeoning at an ever growing pace, it is Gov't mandated from China to India to Europe, the batteries will get cheaper as scales of economy kick in and so will the cars. In my opinion it is a lay down misere, so I have not sold one of my AJM holding I just added more last week.

I believe AJM management to be very competent, unfortunately they have been snookered by this whole JRO farce, and until JRO gets sorted AJM management can't really say anything of much substance. Just get on with being a high quality lithium miner - which is exactly what they have done.