AJM Speculation, page-186

I don’t need to suggest anything - have a look at the 5B. If you were getting 14-15% on ur money wouldn’t you lend a bit more??

I suggested/speculated there could be an opportunity for a takeover. The way I see it there are three ways this will play out

1. Continue as is.. that is scraping along on the bones of the a.. ramping up to nameplate or near enough in 6-9 months then spending a further 18-24months pegging back debt to manageable levels to allow for further funding of stage 2 (which ain’t cheap). Given debt funding of 15%pa that’ll blow through $50m just in interest for that 2 year period - then need additional funding.

2. A takeover by someone with significantly lower cost of capital than 15%, they then refinance off that stupid loan and kick off stage 2 using their balance sheet.

3. A large equity raise ($50m+) which will allow some debt repayment and potentially earlier execution/funding of stage 2 than would otherwise be prudent/possible.

There’s also the possibility of someone taking a large equity stake such as JROs position then being offtaker and financier but I would think if someone was trying to secure supply they would just take the whole asset - but would need to negotiate with JRO to do this given they have first rights to stage 2 offtake as I understand it.