Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

AKE

Click for more information

0.00%

$9.83 allkem limited

As with many others, appreciate your insight. This is the...

First 1189 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
lunatec

183 Posts.

132

05/03/22

06:43

Post #: 59998347
Share

Originally posted by Darkstone: ↑

Yeah, many years ago I thought that too, and that is what they drummed into my head at Uni back in the 80's. It all worked fine while the market was rising until I lost hundreds of thousands in the space of a few months after 20 years investing using only FA and industry knowledge. I missed the the 96 down turn, the dot com crash and the 2008 crash because I was in consulting and IT and could see the problems about to happen (and I was running a consulting firm and they always see the downturn months before everyone else because contracts start getting cancelled and renewals don't happen as things tighten) ) and shifted or exited stocks accordingly. So I thought I was the bee's knees in FA.

After I "retired" and started investing full time I didn't have that feed and and then in the last decade suddenly FA wasn't always matching the stock's performance - eg Li, and then I noticed that you could make money trading GXY as the price fell if you could just work out when it was going to do a dead cat bounce and how high it would go and when it was about to turn, and I reluctantly unlearned everything the Uni had taught me as I realised they were simply wrong.

TA works precisely because it is looking at the rear view and finding the patterns that repeat. What happens tomorrow is because of what happened today with a little adjustment for what arises tomorrow. Think of it like a speeding car. If I go at 40kph I can stop the car in maybe 26mtrs, if I travel at 80kph I can stop in 69mtrs. What speed I am travelling a minute ago determines whether I hit the wall or not in another minute. It is rear view looking but forward projecting. If I can measure the speed I know whether I will die. That is what TA is doing, only with stock trading patterns and money and the crowd behaviour. It looks at how fast the stock is moving now to see where it will go tomorrow. It turns out though that the pattern follow these ridiculous fixed sequences as well which allows you to predict entire courses of movement not just the next few seconds, but with decreasing probability. The further forward you go the less reliable as FA factors increasingly introduce variables, the further back you go the less relevant, but in between those tow there is a sweet spot where FA variables are too lagged to impact and TA patterns dominate.

In reality FA is also rear view looking. Last quarter's performance is no guarantee of tomorrow's performance, the fact that today was sunny does not mean tomorrow won't be rainy. All data whether TA or FA as lagged and rear view steering, bu TA has made a study of matching historic patterns to future outcomes. FA has no such extensive studies sup[porting it, even though it makes common sense.

Expand

As with many others, appreciate your insight. This is the “chart” thread after all.. Thanks again for sharing your wisdom.

AKE Price at posting: $9.96 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

There are more pages in this discussion • 4,689 more messages in this thread...

First 1189 Last

Add AKE (ASX) to my watchlist

SPONSORED BY