Chart update.
Monday:
US Trading Prediction - 1115
Minor channel range top - 1136
Fib Target - 1126
Minor channel range (constrained by trend channel) - 1107 - 1136, Unconstrained, full minor channel (valid on break of 1107) 1092 - 1136.
US trading channel based prediction 1077 - 1115, Close 1102
My predicted high 1126 - 1130
US trading 3 out of 5 charts giving rising wedges as of Friday
You all know what I think.
Yield curve update:
10yr - 2.48%
Compared to 10yr
7yr - 2.56 (inverted)
5yr - 2.55 (Inverted)
2yr - 2.30 (Flat - apparently this is classed as flat versus the 10yr)
Note not yet inverted but trending there. Historically inversion is an early warning of recession looming so there is time to react after it is triggered. It is not a panic flag. Note the 3month has not yet kicked up which I have noted before is an immediate warning when inverted. I can't explain why it does not seem to be moving much this time. When it does move it is extremely fast, but I would have expected it to have already kicked up more than it has. The 2yr can happily go to flat and then normal again so being flat is not a prediction of certain inversion.
Month ends can see a dumping and then a rapid recovery at the start of the next month in AKE. April is the best (statistically) rising month for AKE, SP but April is also one of two months in the year when a sea based invasion of Taiwan is doable because the sea is flat across the straight. I am not aware of any build up of troops on the China side.
