Hmm. Just had another look at that wedge. The first one was not very well drawn. This is a better one:
You will note that it no longer intercepts 1470, and 2/3rds along is about the 30 Aug, which puts us in the 1434 to 1450 target range, so I would not be surprised to see the SP stay in the wedge on Monday, break through on Tuesday hit 1450, and then collapse hard over the last half of Tuesday and Wednesday. Again, just guessing now but it feels like this to me. Ceteris paribus a wedge is usually quite tradable and this one looks like it wants to lead us to 1434 - 1450, maybe 1470. But if trading it, when it breaks the lower bound, don't wait to see if it will recover, as it will hesitate for a little just below and then drop like a stone - in my experience. Every time I have lost a lot very quickly was when I waited hopefully for the SP to recover and hop back into the wedge. Those high volumes holding up the price right now become mortal enemies as the price falls and those same buyers panic sell. Likewise, a wedge that should break down but breaks up, usually (but not always) does that as a very short term transient, and if it falls back into the wedge it continues on through the floor.
