According to Wyckoff Distribution Schematics, after an upthrust occurs, a pullback follows, then the sp moves up and down within a range. And then what?
Then there are two scenarios: 1/ the demand is weak that the sp can't go back as high as the Buying Climax, so it makes Last Point of Supply (StockCharts writes: LPSYs represent exhaustion of demand and the last waves of large operators’ distribution before markdown begins in earnest.), and 2/ the demand surges and the sp pushes to UTAD (usually a new ATH).
Either one of the scenarios can happen. There is no suggestion that one scenario has more chance to happen than the other one.The schematics only shows that there is a surge in demand toward the end of phase B for UTAD to occur.
But I will argue that there is 90% chance for AKE to have UTAD (a new ATH!) within 35 trading days. The other 10% is for a bad market event that makes everyone lose confidence to buy and thus makes UTAD impossible. My reasoning is as simple as follows:
AKE is now in a distribution phase; a period of time when large operators distribute or sell their holding. These large operators get their best profit and the most number of shares sold easily when there is a stampede of bulls buying shares agressively (at market price) such as on Buying Climax, Upthrust, and UTAD. So of course they will facilitate for that stampede to happen. This is probably their last chance to take big profit from AKE. They will drive the sp in such a way as to convince everyone that a powerful break-out is about to happen. And when everyone is convinced, the trigger will be pulled and the bulls will rush into a stampede.
That is what I think is going to happen. Of course, I can be wrong. I am fully aware of that. But I am going to take a punt on the occurrence of UTAD. This is a very low risk punt for me anyway. If UTD doesn't occur, I can always hold and sell later for profit.
(By the way, by revealing what I am going to do, I indirectly show that I don't buy or sell strictly based on the chart as sometime ago I was accused of doing in this threat. When I am buying in the coming days I am sure the chart won't have any clear indication on its direction. And when I was dumping my 55k AKE shares on the morning of 11 November 2022, the UTAD candle on that day was not done yet. I use the chart to make a guess and act based on my guess. The chart later confirms whether my guess is right or wrong. I think that is different from someone who waits for the chart's "confirmation" and then acts accordingly.)
What if the sp is just creeping up higher and higher to reach a new ATH and keeps creeping up? After all, isn't it time for AKE to be rerated? That is of course possible. And if that is what happens, then I am wrong about the UTAD.
Upthrust After Distribution is usually dramatic, explosive, orgasmic. After it happens your knees wobble and you are slumping to the floor in ecstasy or in agony (you tell me; you who recently confessed of having one everyday!) So when/if this UTAD occurs, then I think it is highly possible the sp drops to below $13 (or even lower) to close the gap created by the merger announcement.
As I said, this is all just what I think, and I can be completely wrong.
