Okidoki. This is what I have for Monday. Obviously me...

Okidoki. This is what I have for Monday. Obviously me resurfacing indicates that I think it should be turning up again, 'cuz I am not really good at posting downer predictions. Whether we are quite there yet I am not sure.

These are my ranges for Monday (as you can see it is one of those turning points so I end up with multiple ranges:

Oz lead:
If Down: 1411 - 1441
If Up: 1434 - 1466
Enveloping: 1309 - 1439 (note the up channel should break the down enveloping channel almost immediately)
US Lead: 1427 - 1487 C;1449 O:1440



Now the tricky thing in this chart is the end points of the retrace. The two likely endpoints are marked with bright green horizontal lines: 1470 & 1391. AKE is obviously in the zone, but this assumes there is some reason to change current direction, and with the continued Li price drift down I am not at all sure we have that driver. Although it isn't clear from the screen grab the SP did not get anywhere near my wave 3, although the subwave (v) making up the last step of Wave 3 was pretty much on target based on the other subwaves, of wave 3 but wave 3 itself did not deliver on the promise of wave 1, and in fact failed to reach the target for it to be an EW sequence. So we have a problem and wave 5 is projected to be 2116, which is only a little better than my wave 3 was meant to reach. I am not super confident about Li stocks in the short term as I essentially think that while ever the Li prices are trending down shorters will just keep shorting them. If the bounce takes on Monday I am not making any guess as to whether it is a proper reversal or a dead pussy bounce, but from a TA perspective I think it is due a recovery.

The other thing of note is that the Li stocks are no longer running in a tight tandem pattern with each other and some differentiation has started to creep in. PLS really should be climbing hard now, but it should have gone lower earlier, it is kind of coasting - probably because the Li prices are restraining it, but the previous report constrained the drop a bit. CXO got really over-the-top hammered for its report and guidance, and has hit the bottom of any reasonable TA measure of its retrace and is thus steadily climbing in a kind of flattened range, but probably just in adjustment to the extremity and speed of the fall. NMT similarly was plastered, but more I think because the sold off their Li mines and focussed on Li recycling, so they are more sensitive to prices than even a minor ('cuz Li recycling is expensive to begin with and if the Li prices fall below recycling cost it becomes a zero sum game really fast, hence like CXO NMT was blown away in the down turn and is now recovering while the miners are still being beaten up. Everybody, except NMT seems to respond to the AKE lead intraday, but it is a directional lead not a quantity lead, so AKE can fall a lot or rise a lot, and the others move in that direction but not necessarily by the same percentage.