I’m back into AKE at 9.00 today after I had to sell my long held...

I’m back into AKE at 9.00 today after I had to sell my long held holdings I had accumulated from $3s-6s around $15 a few months ago for other non stock related reasons. I didn’t sell because I was clever, but at least it gave me the opportunity to sit on the sidelines and wait for a good re entry point.

I am not calling the bottom necessarily as I don’t think the technicals on the charts support that, in terms of selling volumes drying up and a base forming or support holding.

but after an almost 50% retracement from the highs, it looks too compelling to ignore.

I also see potential near term catalysts because sentiment in lithium has been low due to declining prices for a long time, and after the cell manufacturers in China de stocking to low inventory levels in the context of falling prices, it won’t take much of an uptick in battery demand to create a sense of urgency for these downstream buyers to start re-stocking, which they do seasonally anyway around this time. Once inventory has reached such low levels, this puts a floor under demand and creates a lag effect that will bolster future demand (catch-up demand) once prices start to tick upwards.

we saw this in the last price cycle, where prices dropped below 10k at the lows with very low inventories, before shooting up to almost 100k as supply deficit due to rising demand was amplified by inventory shortages.

whilst there is a moderate probability that the bottom of the price cycle may take a few more months to form and the rebound may take even another 6-12mo, I am reluctant to wait and to try and ‘time’ the turnaround, because I believe there is lots of smart institutional and high net worth money waiting for this turn around who will get insider info and better early data to act before I do, thus I may miss at least the first 10-20% of that turn around.

I am still sitting majority in bonds and 4.9% interest rate accounts since July but have been deploying capital in the past 3-4 weeks back into the market and will start dollar cost averaging back into etfs and selected undervalued unloved stocks such as csl, rmd and AKE as well as sqm on the nyse . I would also be happy to pick up some igo and pls but I don’t feel those two have bottomed as much and I prefer to have morr brine / carbonate exposure which is preferable to pure spodumene plays presently.

but I think this is a good time to start averaging back into AKE carefully with a 3-5 year view. Not sure where the sp will be in 6months but I would be confident it will be significantly higher in 3 years, obviously as a CDI as part of the new merged entity.