Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

AKE

Click for more information

0.00%

$9.83 allkem limited

When Livent mergers with AKE to become a new company it should...

First 5640 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Nolan78

3,319 Posts.

706

11/11/23

16:01

Post #: 70847353
Share

Originally posted by savvyinvestor: ↑

I’m back into AKE at 9.00 today after I had to sell my long held holdings I had accumulated from $3s-6s around $15 a few months ago for other non stock related reasons. I didn’t sell because I was clever, but at least it gave me the opportunity to sit on the sidelines and wait for a good re entry point.

I am not calling the bottom necessarily as I don’t think the technicals on the charts support that, in terms of selling volumes drying up and a base forming or support holding.

but after an almost 50% retracement from the highs, it looks too compelling to ignore.

I also see potential near term catalysts because sentiment in lithium has been low due to declining prices for a long time, and after the cell manufacturers in China de stocking to low inventory levels in the context of falling prices, it won’t take much of an uptick in battery demand to create a sense of urgency for these downstream buyers to start re-stocking, which they do seasonally anyway around this time. Once inventory has reached such low levels, this puts a floor under demand and creates a lag effect that will bolster future demand (catch-up demand) once prices start to tick upwards.

we saw this in the last price cycle, where prices dropped below 10k at the lows with very low inventories, before shooting up to almost 100k as supply deficit due to rising demand was amplified by inventory shortages.

whilst there is a moderate probability that the bottom of the price cycle may take a few more months to form and the rebound may take even another 6-12mo, I am reluctant to wait and to try and ‘time’ the turnaround, because I believe there is lots of smart institutional and high net worth money waiting for this turn around who will get insider info and better early data to act before I do, thus I may miss at least the first 10-20% of that turn around.

I am still sitting majority in bonds and 4.9% interest rate accounts since July but have been deploying capital in the past 3-4 weeks back into the market and will start dollar cost averaging back into etfs and selected undervalued unloved stocks such as csl, rmd and AKE as well as sqm on the nyse . I would also be happy to pick up some igo and pls but I don’t feel those two have bottomed as much and I prefer to have morr brine / carbonate exposure which is preferable to pure spodumene plays presently.

but I think this is a good time to start averaging back into AKE carefully with a 3-5 year view. Not sure where the sp will be in 6months but I would be confident it will be significantly higher in 3 years, obviously as a CDI as part of the new merged entity.

Expand

When Livent mergers with AKE to become a new company it should go up but then again it ought to be going up now
due to the merger which is getting closer.

In 2020 when GXY merged with ORE to later become AKE back then the stock market was crashing due to the pandemic
yet GXY went from $1.50 to about $5 at merge then ORE shares took off.

Now we seem to be merging with a hopeless company in Livent which its stock price has gone from $25US to $13.75US
Its bad. Its why AKE are falling even though they are going along nicely.

If it wasn't for the merger AKE would be about $13. Lithium prices are falling but Livent making to many mistakes as a company.
Why are we merging with the losers in the US ?

AKE Price at posting: $9.00 Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

3 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

Has uranium run out of steam? An update on nuclear markets & developments ahead in FY25

The Big Deal: Free-to-air TV swings the axe, but will it be enough as enormous sports deal bills loom?

KGL

KGL sniffs 19% Cu from drilling at Rockface play in NT

Week 27 Wrap: "Election year" is here as UK Labour win contrasts France; Trump wins immunity & annual report season hushes ASX

LLL

Leo Lithium announces major divestment of flagship Goulamina project to Ganfeng

Climate change to drive market trends to the moon

ITM

Fast-track assaying yields 182 g/t gold for iTech at new NT play

RHI

Red Hill Minerals Signs $6.5 Million Agreement with Peel Mining to Explore Curnamona Project, NSW

STN

Saturn’s stars have aligned for the gold explorer’s Apollo Project

TVN

Tivan and EARTH AI gear up to commence fresh drilling at Sandover lead-silver project, NT

There are more pages in this discussion • 238 more messages in this thread...

First 5640 Last

Add AKE (ASX) to my watchlist