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akgo01

4,237 Posts.

535

10/12/21

09:23

Post #: 58204769
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Originally posted by Egeria: ↑

I think many have, just going by the lack of posting here. 90% of posts are now ta graphs, the rest updates on EV developments, there is no fa or specific asset or strategy discussion. Lack of company updates is most likely to blame.

Pls has outperformed ake, on all fronts sp value creation, execution, strategy, timing, continuity of updates and now cashflow generation.

Will it continue to do so is anyone's guess, really depends on PLSs downstream success which isn't a given many believe it to be. Producing spodumene alone long term is risky given the abundance of economic resources at +usd500/t and speed of expansion / scalability of some of the larger resources. An oversupply is much more likely in spodumene than further downstream for qualified chemicals imo.

In the pipeline there is: Liontown 400ktpa+, Core 170ktpa, Mt Holland (sqm/wes) ~400ktpa

Idle / restart: wodgina 750ktpa + greenbushes cgp2 rampup (~500ktpa)

Further afield: Avz - which as debatable as it is could turn the spod supply on its head in time (how much time is anyone's guess). Catl has a foot in the door there as well as ganfeng, which doesn't bode well for PLS long term but thats fine they have options.
North american: pll + sya, nemaska, James Bay ???

If the WA hydroxide plants are anything to go by, timing slips, capex gets blown out etc etc

Success of Ake is in their hands, lack of updates doesn't attract the same fanfare pls does. Pls insta posts of teams on site give retail investors the warm fuzzy feeling they are investing in their own people, at home and supporting a greener future. Can't underestimate the importance of being seen to be doing the right thing and being socially accepted, ontop of actually doing it.

Ake great assets, painfully slow progress across multiple fronts and delays without explanation. Pricing for chemicals worlds apart from the frothy spot pricing in China. Very little to no transparency on counterparties they supply (which has been the main driver of more speculative stocks - announcing offtakes with the battery + EV makers). Ake silent on this front as they are not in charge which is probably as frustrating for them as it is for investors. The naraha product is going to a related party, so can't really expect pricing there to be near open market which amongst other factors contributes to subdued upside.

Aimo etc etc

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Egeria,

I had a look at PLS' book, and I could see that you are right that PLS has outperformed AKE in the share price front. I don't know enough in other fronts.

AKE currently has 344,200,000 Shares Outstanding and trading at about $ 8.87 per share.
PLS currently has 2,899,000,000 Shares Outstanding and trading at about $2.51 per share.

That means, if PLS' Shares Outstanding is consolidated to the same amount as AKE's, then PLS' share price actually is trading at about: (2899 million : 344.2 million) x $2.51 = $ 21.15 per share.

That is amazing. No wonder the crowd over there gets the warm fuzzy feeling as you said.

But is that current valuation reasonable and sustainable? I wonder.

One thing I am sure now is how cheap AKE actually is compared to PLS. So I will stick around.

AKE Price at posting: $8.87 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
10 Upvote

2 Great analysis

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