Bitterly disappointing share price performance, but we...

Bitterly disappointing share price performance, but we unfortunately can't help that other people want, or need, to sell.

I've adjusted all expectations until March.

Let's be clear, we are no longer talking hypotheticals, our lawyers are the same ones that have successfully negotiated an MOU with the government for Base / Energy fuels using the new mining code...

This is massive because there's now a precedent, and they have a lot of invaluable experience to help ensure we get the outcome everyone expects.

I think Paul was called to Madagascar in November last year, and he ultimately came back with a list of things to be done.

I am sure team have worked diligently on addressing any outstanding items, and have submitted the changes under the guidance of the lawyers. We need to let things run their course - or keep course correcting until we get it done.

I'm assuming Paul has been called back for a reason, and I'm expecting us to be closer to an MOU than ever.

My perspective
- a excellent outcome will be announcing the MOU / permit in the next week or so, whilst he is there (15% chance)
- a great outcome will be announcing an MOU anytime before March (25% chance)
- a good (but still great) outcome would be the MOU when the PFS being released before April (30% chance)
- an OK outcome (but still great, really), would be an MOU / permit anytime before July (20% chance)
- as frustrating as that would be, getting the MOU anytime before the end of this year would ultimately be a great outcome (5% chance)
- a poor outcome would be not having the MOU after 12 months but still getting it within the next 24 months - ie 2027 (4% chance)
- and a bad outcome would be more than 24 months, or heaven forbid, not getting a permit at all (1% chance)

12 months ago the mining code was still being negotiated by different branches of government.

Today one MOU has been signed, we are working with the best team of lawyers in the country, we have an engaged, motivated and proactive set of government stakeholders and we've added Graeme and Jason to the team to support Paul in negotiating the terms and completing the work.

Pride and frustration aside, the progress is undeniable.