Akora (AKO) VS Hawsons (HIO), page-45

Interesting question.

All the major iron ore producers are continually spanning the globe for opportunities to expand their portfolios.
It will only take one of them to realise that AKO is in the early stages of discovering a new iron ore province before it forms a strategy for taking out existing AKO shareholders.

For when and how much? This is up for debate.

Should the acquirer make an offer now in the early stages of incredible exploration success with highly prospective metallurgical grades (cheap entry but still risky) or wait for more exploration success with confirmed metallurgical results (more expensive but reduced risk)? Believe me, the acquirer doesn't need to wait for any feasibility studies to be completed. (The acquirer would be doing its own back of the envelope calculations and will rely on those when formulating an offer. It all comes down to estimated reserves and grade.)
So for the sake of the argument let's assume it wants to make an offer NOW.

Assume an offer of $1.75 per share.

AKO board meets and cnsensus of the Board is that it worth much more than $1.75 per share. The board needs to back up its position and then appoints an independent expert to gain an opinion of what each share is worth.

Currently it has an independent valuation, performed in Dec 2022 which values the shares at $1.46 each.

Given no more information on reserves and grade since then, I would regard this valuation as current and unlikely to be increased. Add the expected and conventional 33% to the valuation for an acquirer to gain control, the Board would then have trouble defending an offer of just over $2 per share at present, irrespective of the potential value being assessed by the independent expert of possibly $6-8 per share.
Conversely , the Board could defend an offer of below $2 a share at present with confidence.
Timing is everything. The more success AKO has drilling etc over time, the more value that is created for existing shareholders, but once an offer arrives, the Board will be forced to back its view of valuation and advise shareholders accordingly.

Sleep well as at present, I don't think an offer of less than $2 a share would succeed tomorrow. And it is likely only to increase from current levels over time as more info is released.