al80 / al203, page-28

On the basis of past performance and the delays on achieving the forecasts of the contracts it signed , it is my opinion MHM will never deliver on the forecasts it made in December 2009 at Geelong .

Ihave formed this opinion based on the date of the forecast and the lack of it even coming close to such figures in the last 2 + years

The initial 12 month contract has expired , for now even longer than it ran , and as far as I can see there doesnt seem to be an urgency from the parties to renew it

There was some comment regarding tolling in a recent release , but no mention of a renewal , or terms so that anyone could possibly be in a position to do a calculation on whether the forecasts has any chance of delivery

As such I am skeptical .

No its not a downramp , it is just an opinion .

I get a sense Simsmetal like all others in the aluminium industry have price pressures , and if they can share more in what MHM estimate to be a cash cow with their product , maybe they will wanht to include that in the terms it is agreed to sign on for at the cost of signing a longer term commitment tothe pricing model .

If you dont that Sims and Alcoa bottom lines are an important factor , or the lack of a contractual renewal by them to MHM is important so be it

If my assumptions that the contracts havent been extended by a time frame that a PE copuld be determined ie 5+ years I am happy to be corrected .