ESG 0.00% 86.5¢ eastern star gas limited

alan fanton and lngn, page-8

  1. 2,905 Posts.
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    STO presentation and announcement on Kogas

    GLNG 2P 2010 Estimated = 5005PJ
    This is an increase of 25% over the 2009 Actual 2P of 4003PJ

    STO sold 15% for A$665M
    0.15 x 5005PJ = 751PJ
    Price per PJ = 665/751 = $0.885M/PJ or 88.5c/GJ
    Not dissimilar from other metrics

    ESG JV share 2P is 988PJ x Uplift 25% during 2010 = 1235PJ (E) (Uplift could be > 25%)
    STO share ($0.885M x 1235) x 35/65 = $589M

    STO have about 20% of about 1023M shares
    or about 204.6M shares
    They would want a 1mth VWAP40% premium too I suppose
    So $0.79 x 1.40 = $1.11
    204.6M x $1.11 = $227M


    Gas Share = $589M
    ESG Equity = $227M
    Total = $816M (About $800M)


    Just my ball park estimate. As has been pointed out before what part of the $665M Kogas paid is for "what" is not known to us.

    The Narrabri JV reserves uplift achieved in 2010 will be important. I have just used the 25% STO achieved - the JV may achieve more.



    Cheers
 
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