Disclaimer I used AI to help me put my thoughts together:
TL;DR: Albemarle’s options positioning has swung from negative gamma to positive gamma across key expirations, with bullish call walls stepping higher and dealers now buying dips instead of shorting rips.
I use ALB as a lithium proxy. This is the “what the pirate banks are really up to” view you only get from options flow.
It lines up with the fresh move in China lithium prices and rising spodumene offers — the reason I’ve been happily adding LTR regardless of today’s tape.
I pay US$100 dollars a month to get access to this data, it's a cornerstone in my dataset. It's a little secret (imo) I want to share for new and old investors.
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1. What Changed in ALB Last Night
Older snapshot — momentum low, gamma negative, no real positioning support:
Today’s end-of-day — Option score rockets to Very High (5/5), gamma flips positive, and near-term structure turns bullish:
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2. Dealer Behaviour Flips With It
Negative gamma = dealers short gamma, they chase price (increasing volatility both ways).
Positive gamma = dealers long gamma, they fade moves (buy dips, sell rips), which supports price and pulls it toward call walls.
Here’s the Option Matrix from today — note the green positive GEX blocks across expirations, with the largest concentration into September:
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3. Strike Maps Show the Bullish Targets
When you plot the gamma, you see exactly where the call resistance and put support stack up:
Aug 15: Put support ~70, call resistance mid-70s.
Sep 19: Heaviest positive GEX, call wall at 80.
Into 2026: Resistance stair-steps higher, support floors lift — textbook bullish term structure.
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4. Comparing Old vs New Gamma Structure
Old Option Matrix — heavy negative gamma dominating near-dated expirations, stagnant call resistance, weak support:
Today — positive gamma dominates, dealer hedging now supportive, call walls higher, support firming. This is the flip that matters.
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5. Why ALB as a Proxy?
ALB is the largest listed lithium producer, deeply tied into China’s supply chain and global contracts.
When the big player’s options flow turns, it often previews sentiment and capital flows for the entire lithium complex.
It shows us what the real players are up to aka. The Banks.
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6. Macro Tape Aligns
China spot and futures jumped on potential supply disruptions and pre-September restocking.
Spodumene offers stepped higher, hydroxide followed.
Upstream strength + ALB’s options flip = flow plus fundamentals pointing the same way.
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7. What This Implies for LTR
Positive gamma in ALB tends to dampen drawdowns and nudge price toward higher call walls.
If the leader grinds up into 75–80 into September, sector beta typically lifts developers and near-term producers.
LTR’s leverage to spodumene + tightening China spot means small sentiment shifts can create outsized moves.
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8. For the Loyal LTR Holders
We’ve sat through the noise. Now the largest proxy in the space just flipped to a supportive options regime while physical pricing firms.
That’s a rare combination. I’m buying with both hands because hedging mechanics are now in our favour and the fundamental drumbeat is getting louder.
Stay the course — the big money’s hedge book is starting to point the way.
Anything under $1 I'll be buying.
IMO DYOR
(20min delay)