Resolve Political Monitor
Young voters turn their backs on the Coalition
Younger voters have flocked to Labor in the biggest shift among all age groups since the federal election, highlighting a challenge for Peter Dutton.
Younger voters have flocked to Labor in the biggest shift among all age groups since the federal election, increasing their core support for the new government from 31 to 42 per cent while shunning the Coalition and others.
The powerful shift has compounded the gains to Labor at the May election and highlighted a structural challenge for Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in keeping a crucial voter cohort that has slashed its support for the Liberal Party to historic lows.
But the new government has lost some of its gains among older voters, with an exclusive analysis showing that voters aged 55 and over have returned to favouring the Coalition after a big swing to Labor soon after the election.
The quarterly analysis of the Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for this masthead, is based on responses from 4608 voters over three surveys from October to December.
The findings reveal that men and women have swung to Labor in roughly equal terms, with the party’s primary vote among female voters rising from 33 per cent at the election to 39 per cent in the latest analysis compared to an increase from 33 to 41 per cent among men.
Women have marked down the Coalition more heavily than men in a trend that has also emerged in the Australian Election Study conducted by the Australian National University, sparking a debate about a reversal since the 1990s when women were slightly more likely to vote for the Coalition.
The Resolve Political Monitor finds that 34 per cent of women gave their primary vote to the Coalition at the election compared to 37 per cent of men.
Both groups have turned against the Coalition in significant numbers since May, with the latest analysis finding that women have cut their support to 30 per cent while men have cut it to 32 per cent.
While the rise of the “teal” independent candidates was one of the major shifts at the May election and was matched by a backlash against former prime minister Scott Morrison among women, the Resolve Political Monitor finds the primary vote support for men in the latest quarter is 8 per cent among men and 9 per cent among women, a gap that is within the margin of error for the surveys.
The trends have helped give Prime Minister Anthony Albanese a significant personal lead, with 55 per cent of men naming him their preferred prime minister compared to 21 per cent who name Dutton.
Among women, 51 per cent prefer Albanese while 17 per cent back Dutton. The lead for Albanese is the same in both cohorts, at 34 percentage points.
The Australian Election Study, led by Sarah Cameron and Ian McAllister and released in early December, highlighted the way female voters have turned against the Coalition over the long term.
“In the 1990s women were slightly more likely to vote for the Coalition, and men were more likely to vote Labor,” it found.
“This has gradually switched, so more men now prefer the Coalition and more women prefer Labor. This reversal of the gender gap in voting behaviour has also been observed in other democracies including in Europe and North America. Women increasingly prefer parties on the left, and men parties on the right.”
The Resolve Political Monitor found that 13 per cent of women cast their primary vote for the Greens at the election compared to 11 per cent of men, but this has shifted in the December quarter to 14 per cent among women and 10 per cent among men.
Voters aged from 18 to 34 showed a leaning to the left at the election, with 31 per cent choosing Labor with their first preference and 27 per cent backing the Coalition.
The trend since May has turned the gap into a gulf, with 41 per cent backing Labor and only 21 per cent staying with the Coalition. Another 24 per cent give their first preferences to the Greens, up from 22 per cent at the election.
The trend among older voters has moderated, however, with some voters swinging back to the Coalition over the past quarter. Australians aged 55 and older showed a preference for the Liberals and Nationals at the election, with 46 per cent giving their first preferences to the Coalition and 33 per cent choosing Labor.
The same cohort swung to the new government in the Resolve Political Monitor’s quarterly survey to the end of September, with 36 per cent choosing the Coalition and 42 per cent backing Labor.
In the December quarter, however, 42 per cent of the same age group backed the Coalition and 38 per cent chose Labor. Support for the Greens among this group ranged from five to three per cent, within the margin of error.
The swing to the new government among voters aged from 35 to 54 has been less volatile, with support for Labor climbing from 34 per cent at the election to 40 per cent in the September quarter and staying there in the December quarter.
Support for the Coalition among this age group fell from 32 per cent at the election to 28 per cent in the September quarter and 27 per cent in the December quarter.
“This shows Labor making solid gains on primary vote since the May election, and only dropping back slightly on their high point in the last quarter,” said Resolve director Jim Reed.
“Probably the most interesting breakdown is the difference by age, with those aged from 18 to 34 consistently coming over to Labor over the last six months to consummate the honeymoon.
“But those aged over 55 have deserted Labor in the last quarter. This is particularly marked in the retirees group.”
The Australian Election Study also identified a challenge for the Coalition among younger voters at this year’s election.
“Only about one in four voters under the age of 40 reported voting for the Coalition in 2022,” it said.
“At no time in the 35-year history of the AES have we observed such a low level of support for either major party in so large a segment of the electorate.”
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Game over old farts. The young are here.
