IMAGINE working on something for 20 years with the result being a simple thumbs up or thumbs down? That’s precisely the conundrum for drug developer Alchemia which is expecting the final phase three test results of its late-stage cancer drug sometime this quarter. If the double blind human trials show better results for HA-Irinotecan in treating metastatic colorectal cancer than standard Irinotecan, then Alchemia has a massively profitable drug on its hands. If the drug is no better or worse than the standard chemotherapy, then disappointment doesn’t really cover what that means for Alchemia and its many shareholders. It is this sort of binary outcome that has caused many Australian biotechnology stocks to licence their technology early rather than bear all of the regulatory and financial risks of running a phase three trial.
Chief executive Thomas Liquard is remarkably relaxed about the outcome, given that 415 patients were enrolled in this particular trial starting way back in 2011, with the last patient randomised back in February 2013. “The important thing with trials is to be able to thread a needle through all of the data,’’ said Mr Liquard. “You don’t want numbers that jump around and so far the results with HA-Irinotecan have been remarkably consistent.’’ The key to this drug is that it supplies what cancer cells crave and then, like the Trojan horse of old, releases the chemotherapy drug right in the heart of the tumour cells. This sneak attack has led to better outcomes in earlier trials but it is only in phase three trials, when a drug goes head to head against the current standard of care, that true effectiveness is revealed. The stakes are even higher than just this drug — although once HA-Irinotecan is effectively de-risked, it becomes a very valuable commodity indeed, given the large number of potential patients. Alchemia’s HyACT cancer drug platform is capable of spawning many new Trojan horse cancer drugs if this one is effective, by turbocharging the effectiveness and reducing the side-effects of standard chemotherapy drugs. Alchemia also has a royalty stream flowing from its generic blood thinning drug Fondaparinux and an underappreciated drug discovery chemical library. However, it is the trial results that will be absolutely crucial to Alchemia’s future. With margins for branded cancer drugs in the region of 70 per cent plus and a major market, Alchemia has a good chance to thread the needle and is a speculative buy.
ACL Price at posting:
61.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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