@stormer – With a monthly cash burn of $300K, Spacetalk’s current cash balance is likely sitting around $1.2 million.
As we approach 30 June, it becomes increasingly difficult for Spacetalk to artificially inflate its closing cash position by delaying creditor payments. The size and ageing of trade debts will be plainly visible in the forthcoming financial results.
This leads us to an inevitable question: When will the next capital raise (CR) occur? Will it be:
Before 30 June?
Between 1 July and 30 August (ahead of the Full Year Results)?
Or in September?
Here are six possible scenarios:
1. Alex Waislitz (AW) Puts in More Capital
AW may inject additional funds as a face-saving exercise, even if it's commercially irrational. Having already invested over $6 million, he risks losing it all if Spacetalk collapses or if Pure Asset Management (PAM) takes control due to loan default. That would be a disastrous outcome for Thorney Investment Group, already facing scrutiny due to poor performance.
2. Simon Crowther Contributes $1–2 Million Personally
This would be the ideal outcome. Crowther has promoted a bullish narrative for over two years, yet delivered no meaningful results. If he fails to personally contribute at least $1 million to the upcoming CR, should he consider resigning?
3. Loan Default – PAM Takes Control
Spacetalk defaults on the $5 million loan, and PAM assumes control. AW’s investment is wiped out, and other shareholders lose everything. This is perhaps the most probable scenario in 2025, and PAM could still recover a portion of its loan.
4. Capital Raising from Small Shareholders
Unlikely. Investor confidence is low. All six of Crowther’s past capital raises were down rounds, leaving participants underwater.
5. Crowther Secures a New Institutional Investor
Possible, but improbable. Market confidence in Crowther is minimal, and he has yet to invest any meaningful personal capital into Spacetalk.
6. Spacetalk Trades Its Way Out
Highly unlikely. The current business model is burning $300K monthly. Radical cost-cutting is the only remedy, starting with the executive team and board. (Why does such a small company need both a CEO and COO?) There is no working capital left to fund inventory either.
Spacetalk is fast approaching a tipping point. Without decisive action—preferably supported by those who’ve championed the company—it’s hard to see a path forward that doesn’t end with control passing to PAM or complete value destruction for shareholders.
Thoughts?
(20min delay)