Algorithm on closing rotation, page-27

Nothing from J&J side to hinder J&J teaming up with OCC ultimately, but I suspect very particular requirements by J&J holding up the ATI trials and a partnership up. J&J has won 8 court cases against the talc claims, that were disproved in subsequent tests. The Opoid claims are well priced into J&J stock in my opinion with them having made plenty of allowance.

Back to the timing, I suspect OCC did the CR recently because of the delay in ATI recruitment. I suspect they would otherwise have announced funding from a J&J partnership emerging from ATI trials (and still likely will). At worse they would have done a CR after the price spike on the inevitable good ATI results. With the hold up in recruitment, they will have felt it better to raise now for expansion, rather than under pressure later if any further delays to the initial ATI results. It hurt us ($) but in the long-term the company better placed.

I am annoyed with myself for not predicting the CR with the ATI trials delay, but had I sold out higher in anticipation, I would certainly be buying back in here again lower than the Insto buy-in. When the initial ATI results come out, I am 100% confident of seeing 80-90% success rates in patients in one of the worse operations - why J&J picked it. I am 80% confident of a J&J partnership emerging (they would not have commissioned the trials if they were not interested) and 100% of someone else picking it up if they don't. What the share price does in the mean-time is far less predictable. My best guess is (after a little dip on poor retail take up of the SPP) like the May CR it hangs around/just under the CR price until some more positive announcements emerge to dissuade profit taking above $0.50.

Such a shame they did not get the ATI recruitment done and preliminary results out. I suspect we'd be trading $0.70+ after having had another spike and re-trace on the results. A shitty Christmas present for my PnL.