I don't care who the DOCA is with in the end but given the report says the offer from CHEL "will deliver a markedly superior outcome to creditors than the Galaxy proposal" it suggest that either CHEL are paying over the top (unlikely given the circumstances) OR the GXY offer is crap.
Disappointing that there were only 2 DOCA's received in the end but given the short time frame it was not so surprising given most large companies need months for studies and internal approvals for any M&A activity.
The CHEL offer is not so clear to me, my takeaways:
- CHEL offer a low interest rate loan to 'the Comapanies' (Lithco/Alita)....
- The receivers and managers will retire...for this to happen the company must have to be a going concern?... which means the loan being discussed must be quite large to sustain the business... If this is the case and Alita management / shareholders are given back control, interested to see what exactly is in it for CHEL and the size of the loan (mention of 'related agreements' with CHEL other than the loan).
- CHEL get security over assets.
- Creditors are in a better position to 'possibly' recoup funds (suggests ongoing operations of Alita rather than a payout?)
If CHEL do steal it away from shareholders in the end... could now be that GXY get their loan paid back with peanuts earned in interest (offset against what they borrowed money at) and take a ~$45M odd loss on their equity. Horrible outcome for all. Tribeca would also lose all their investment...
Don't want to write off CHEL at this point until we see the final terms. If it was ALB or Ganfeng offering the exact same thing instead of CHEL we'd be looking at this very differently I feel.
Also, be very surprised if there is no mention of Cowan in any of this... Interesting week ahead!
